Related papers: Detection of Approaching Critical Transitions in N…

Anticipating bifurcation-induced transitions in dynamical systems has gained relevance in various fields of the natural, social, and economic sciences. Before the annihilation of a system's equilibrium point by means of a bifurcation, the…

The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) has played a key role in the search for reliable precursors of catastrophic regime shifts. This is caused by its presence in a generic class of bifurcating dynamical systems. Simple time-series…

Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) can be used to anticipate such transitions…

Many dynamical systems, including power systems, recover from perturbations more slowly as they approach critical transitions---a phenomenon known as critical slowing down. If the system is stochastically forced, autocorrelation and…

A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation because of the centre manifold theorem. It is often tacitly…

Early warning indicators often suffer from the shortness and coarse-graining of real-world time series. Furthermore, the typically strong and correlated noise contributions in real applications are severe drawbacks for statistical measures.…

The behavior of a dynamical system can exhibit abrupt changes when it crosses a tipping point. To prevent catastrophic events, it is useful to analyze indicators of the incoming bifurcation, as the divergence of the relaxation time of the…

Critical slowing down (CSD) is the phenomenon in which a system recovers more slowly from small perturbations. CSD, as evidenced by increasing signal variance and autocorrelation, has been observed in many dynamical systems approaching a…

There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…

It is tested whether past abrupt climate changes support the validity of statistical early-warning signals (EWS) as predictor of future climate tipping points. EWS are expected increases in amplitude and correlation of fluctuations driven…

Many real-world systems undergo abrupt changes in dynamics as they move across critical points, often with dramatic consequences. Much existing theory on identifying the time-series signatures of nearby critical points -- such as increased…

Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socio-economic changes and climate transitions between ice-ages and warm-ages. From bifurcation…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

Tipping points (TP) are often described as low-dimensional bifurcations, and are associated with early-warning signals (EWS) due to critical slowing down (CSD). CSD is an increase in amplitude and correlation of noise-induced fluctuations…

Detecting critical transitions in complex, noisy time-series data is a fundamental challenge across science and engineering. Such transitions may be anticipated by the emergence of a low-dimensional order parameter, whose signature is often…

Natural dynamical systems, including the brain and climate, are highly nonlinear and complex. Determining information flow among the components that make up these dynamical systems is challenging. If the components are the result of a…

Change point detection (CPD) aims to locate abrupt property changes in time series data. Recent CPD methods demonstrated the potential of using deep learning techniques, but often lack the ability to identify more subtle changes in the…

Tipping points (TP) are abrupt transitions between metastable states in complex systems, most often described by a bifurcation or crisis of a multistable system induced by a slowly changing control parameter. An avenue for predicting TPs in…

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…

We present Link Density (LD) computed from the Recurrence Network (RN) of a time series data as an effective measure that can detect dynamical transitions in a system. We illustrate its use using time series from the standard Rossler system…