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In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate incremental effects by modeling how customer behavior changes under alternative treatments. However, real-world data often exhibit biases - such as selection bias, spillover effects, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Yuxuan Yang , Dugang Liu , Yiyan Huang

Uplift modeling comprises a collection of machine learning techniques designed for managers to predict the incremental impact of specific actions on customer outcomes. However, accurately estimating this incremental impact poses significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Junjie Gao , Xiangyu Zheng , DongDong Wang , Zhixiang Huang , Bangqi Zheng , Kai Yang

Uplift modeling has emerged as a crucial technique for individualized treatment effect estimation, particularly in fields such as marketing and healthcare. Modeling uplift effects in multi-treatment scenarios plays a key role in real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Ruyue Zhang , Xiaopeng Ke , Ming Liu , Fangzhou Shi , Chang Men , Zhengdan Zhu

Uplift modeling has achieved significant success in various fields, particularly in online marketing. It is a method that primarily utilizes machine learning and deep learning to estimate individual treatment effects. This paper we apply…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Xinlin Wang , Mats Brorsson

Uplift models play a critical role in modern marketing applications to help understand the incremental benefits of interventions and identify optimal targeting strategies. A variety of techniques exist for building uplift models, and it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-05 Yang Liu , Chaoyu Yuan

Uplift modeling is crucial in various applications ranging from marketing and policy-making to personalized recommendations. The main objective is to learn optimal treatment allocations for a heterogeneous population. A primary line of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-20 Preetam Nandy , Xiufan Yu , Wanjun Liu , Ye Tu , Kinjal Basu , Shaunak Chatterjee

Uplift modeling and Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) estimation aim at predicting the causal effect of an action, such as a medical treatment or a marketing campaign on a specific individual. In this paper, we focus on data from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Krzysztof Rudaś , Szymon Jaroszewicz

Randomized experiments have been critical tools of decision making for decades. However, subjects can show significant heterogeneity in response to treatments in many important applications. Therefore it is not enough to simply know which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-13 Yan Zhao , Xiao Fang , David Simchi-Levi

Uplift models provide a solution to the problem of isolating the marketing effect of a campaign. For customer churn reduction, uplift models are used to identify the customers who are likely to respond positively to a retention activity…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-21 Mouloud Belbahri , Alejandro Murua , Olivier Gandouet , Vahid Partovi Nia

Uplift modeling estimates the causal effect of an intervention as the difference between potential outcomes under treatment and control, whereas counterfactual identification aims to recover the joint distribution of these potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Gianluca Bontempi

Uplift modeling has effectively been used in fields such as marketing and customer retention, to target those customers that are most likely to respond due to the campaign or treatment. Uplift models produce uplift scores which are then…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-17 Floris Devriendt , Tias Guns , Wouter Verbeke

Estimating treatment effects is one of the most challenging and important tasks of data analysts. In many applications, like online marketing and personalized medicine, treatment needs to be allocated to the individuals where it yields a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-19 Björn Bokelmann , Stefan Lessmann

Uplift modeling is a technique used to predict the effect of a treatment (e.g., discounts) on an individual's response. Although several methods have been proposed for multi-valued treatment, they are extended from binary treatment methods.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Zexu Sun , Xu Chen

Improving user engagement and platform revenue is crucial for online marketing platforms. Uplift modeling is proposed to solve this problem, which applies different treatments (e.g., discounts, bonus) to satisfy corresponding users. Despite…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Zexu Sun , Qiyu Han , Minqin Zhu , Hao Gong , Dugang Liu , Chen Ma

This paper introduces a marketing decision framework that optimizes customer targeting by integrating heterogeneous treatment effect estimation with explicit business guardrails. The objective is to maximize revenue and retention while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Deepit Sapru

Log and square root transformations of target variable are routinely used in forecasting models to predict future sales. These transformations often lead to better performing models. However, they also introduce a systematic negative bias…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-29 Sushant More

We study uplift estimation for combinatorial treatments. Uplift measures the pure incremental causal effect of an intervention (e.g., sending a coupon or a marketing message) on user behavior, modeled as a conditional individual treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Xinyan Su , Jiacan Gao , Mingyuan Ma , Xiao Xu , Xinrui Wan , Tianqi Gu , Enyun Yu , Jiecheng Guo , Zhiheng Zhang

Modern e-commerce services frequently target customers with incentives or interventions to engage them in their products such as games, shopping, video streaming, etc. This customer engagement increases acquisition of more customers and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Qiqi Li , Roopali Singh , Charin Polpanumas , Tanner Fiez , Namita Kumar , Shreya Chakrabarti

Efficiently allocating treatments with a budget constraint constitutes an important challenge across various domains. In marketing, for example, the use of promotions to target potential customers and boost conversions is limited by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Toon Vanderschueren , Wouter Verbeke , Felipe Moraes , Hugo Manuel Proença

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Gundeep Arora , Srujana Merugu , Anoop Saladi , Rajeev Rastogi