Related papers: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Significance Tests

The seminal 2009 paper by Bernard, Krauth, and Wilson marked a paradigm shift in Monte Carlo sampling. By abandoning the restrictive condition of detailed balance in favor of the more fundamental principle of global balance, they introduced…

In this report, we present qualitative analysis of Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method for measuring model uncertainty in neural network (NN) models. We first consider the sources of uncertainty in NNs, and briefly review Bayesian Neural…

In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

A measure-preserving dynamical system can be approximated by a Markov shift with a bistochastic matrix. This leads to using empirical stochastic matrices to measure and estimate properties of stirring protocols. Specifically, the second…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the main workhorses of probabilistic inference, but it is notoriously hard to measure the quality of approximate posterior samples. This challenge is particularly salient in black box inference…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly used method for approximating expectations with respect to probability distributions. Uncertainty assessment for MCMC estimators is essential in practical applications. Moreover, for…

This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide consistent of integrals as the number of iterations goes to infinity. MCMC estimators are generally biased after any fixed number of iterations. We propose to remove this bias by using…

High statistical precision is critical for Monte Carlo (MC) samples in high energy physics and is degraded by negatively weighted events. This paper investigates a procedure to learn the relationship between the negative and positive weight…

We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…

This work combines multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) with importance sampling to estimate rare-event quantities that can be expressed as the expectation of a Lipschitz observable of the solution to a broad class of McKean--Vlasov stochastic…

The efficiency of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm might be measured by the cost of generating one independent sample, or equivalently, the total cost divided by the effective sample size, defined in terms of the integrated…

The random numbers driving Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation are usually modeled as independent U(0,1) random variables. Tribble [Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms using completely uniformly distributed driving sequences (2007)…

We present a sequential Monte Carlo sampler algorithm for the Bayesian analysis of generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs). These models support a variety of interesting regression-type analyses, but performing inference is often extremely…

Standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) admits three fundamental control parameters: the number of chains, the length of the warmup phase, and the length of the sampling phase. These control parameters play a large role in determining the…

This paper develops tests of the null hypothesis of linearity in the context of autoregressive models with Markov-switching means and variances. These tests are robust to the identification failures that plague conventional likelihood-based…

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…

An introduction to the basics of Monte Carlo is given. The topics covered include, sample space, events, probabilities, random variables, mean, variance, covariance, characteristic function, chebyshev inequality, law of large numbers,…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating development…