Related papers: An energy-based model approach to rare event proba…

Energy-based modeling is a promising approach to unsupervised learning, which yields many downstream applications from a single model. The main difficulty in learning energy-based models with the "contrastive approaches" is the generation…

The demand for reliable AI systems has intensified the need for interpretable deep neural networks. Concept bottleneck models (CBMs) have gained attention as an effective approach by leveraging human-understandable concepts to enhance…

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) provide a flexible framework for generative modeling, but their training remains theoretically challenging due to the need to approximate normalization constants and efficiently sample from complex, multi-modal…

Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix…

Energy-based models (EBMs) are generative models that are usually trained via maximum likelihood estimation. This approach becomes challenging in generic situations where the trained energy is non-convex, due to the need to sample the Gibbs…

The original formulation of BEAMS - Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species - showed how to use a dataset contaminated by points of multiple underlying types to perform unbiased parameter estimation. An example is cosmological…

We propose a new method to obtain kinetic properties of infrequent events from molecular dynamics simulation. The procedure employs a recently introduced variational approach [Valsson and Parrinello, Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 090601 (2014)] to…

We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modeling highly rare risk…

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is a fundamental learning rule for statistical learning problems where the data is generated according to some unknown distribution $\mathsf{P}$ and returns a hypothesis $f$ chosen from a fixed class…

Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…

Standard rare-event simulation techniques require exact distributional specifications, which limits their effectiveness in the presence of distributional uncertainty. To address this, we develop a novel framework for estimating rare-event…

Finite-sample bias is a pervasive challenge in the estimation of structural equation models (SEMs), especially when sample sizes are small or measurement reliability is low. A range of methods have been proposed to improve finite-sample…

We consider the problem of estimating the energy of a quantum state preparation for a given Hamiltonian in Pauli decomposition. For various quantum algorithms, in particular in the context of quantum chemistry, it is crucial to have energy…

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting…

The embedded atom method (EAM) is one of the most widely used many-body, short-range potentials in molecular dynamics simulations, particularly for metallic systems. To enhance the efficiency of calculating these short-range interactions,…

We have implemented quantum modeling mainly based on Bohmian Mechanics to study time series that contain strong coupling between their events. We firstly propose how compared to normal densities, our target time series seem to be associated…

We study risk-aware linear policy approximations for the optimal operation of an energy system with stochastic wind power, storage, and limited fuel. The resulting problem is a sequential decision-making problem with rolling forecasts. In…

When using the finite element method (FEM) in inverse problems, its discretization error can produce parameter estimates that are inaccurate and overconfident. The Bayesian finite element method (BFEM) provides a probabilistic model for the…