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We investigate whether a Gaussian likelihood, as routinely assumed in the analysis of cosmological data, is supported by simulated survey data. We define test statistics, based on a novel method that first destroys Gaussian correlations in…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-15 Elena Sellentin , Alan F. Heavens

The 21 cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization will be observed with the up-coming Square Kilometer Array (SKA). SKA should yield a full tomography of the signal which opens the possibility to explore its non-Gaussian properties. How can…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-05-28 Benoit Semelin , Romain Mériot , Ashutosh Mishra , David Cornu

We present simulation-based cosmological $w$CDM inference using Dark Energy Survey Year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level…

Neural simulation-based inference is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-06-16 ATLAS Collaboration

\textit{What is the cosmological information content of a cubic Gigaparsec of dark matter? } Extracting cosmological information from the non-linear matter distribution has high potential to tighten parameter constraints in the era of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-04 Anirban Bairagi , Benjamin Wandelt

Extracting cosmological information from Stage IV weak lensing surveys requires non-linear modelling of the matter power spectrum that is accurate across a broad range of scales and redshifts and robust to baryonic feedback. We forecast the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-16 Evan Saraivanov , Henrique Rubira , Vivian Miranda , Tim Eifler

The current methods available to estimate gravitational shear from astronomical images of galaxies introduce systematic errors which can affect the accuracy of weak lensing cosmological constraints. We study the impact of KSB shape…

The non-Gaussisan spatial distribution of galaxies traces the large-scale structure of the Universe and therefore constitutes a prime observable to constrain cosmological parameters. We conduct Bayesian inference of the $\Lambda$CDM…

$ $Weak gravitational lensing is a powerful probe which is used to constrain the standard cosmological model and its extensions. With the enhanced statistical precision of current and upcoming surveys, high accuracy predictions for weak…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-04-26 Ting Tan , Dominik Zuercher , Janis Fluri , Alexandre Refregier , Federica Tarsitano , Tomasz Kacprzak

We present GalSBI, a phenomenological model of the galaxy population for cosmological applications using simulation-based inference. The model is based on analytical parametrizations of galaxy luminosity functions, morphologies and spectral…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-09 Silvan Fischbacher , Tomasz Kacprzak , Luca Tortorelli , Beatrice Moser , Alexandre Refregier , Patrick Gebhardt , Daniel Gruen

When a posterior peaks in unexpected regions of parameter space, new physics has either been discovered, or a bias has not been identified yet. To tell these two cases apart is of paramount importance. We therefore present a method to…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-04 Elena Sellentin , Jean-Luc Starck

Effective field theory (EFT)-based full-shape analysis with simulation-based priors (SBPs) is a novel approach to galaxy clustering data analysis, which significantly boosts the constraining power by efficiently incorporating field-level…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-11 Mikhail M. Ivanov

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a common name for an emerging family of approaches that infer the model parameters when the likelihood is intractable. Existing SBI methods either approximate the likelihood, such as Approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Theo Gruner , Boris Belousov , Fabio Muratore , Daniel Palenicek , Jan Peters

Flagship near-future surveys targeting $10^8-10^9$ galaxies across cosmic time will soon reveal the processes of galaxy assembly in unprecedented resolution. This creates an immediate computational challenge on effective analyses of the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-03 Bingjie Wang , Joel Leja , V. Ashley Villar , Joshua S. Speagle

Obtaining accurately calibrated redshift distributions of photometric samples is one of the great challenges in photometric surveys like LSST, Euclid, HSC, KiDS, and DES. We present an inference methodology that combines the redshift…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-09 M. M. Rau , C. B. Morrison , S. J. Schmidt , S. Wilson , R. Mandelbaum , Y. Y. Mao

We propose a posterior for Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) based on generalized Bayesian inference. To define the posterior, we use Scoring Rules (SRs), which evaluate probabilistic models given an observation. In LFI, we can…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-24 Lorenzo Pacchiardi , Sherman Khoo , Ritabrata Dutta

We perform a precision calculation of the effective field theory (EFT) conditional likelihood for large-scale structure (LSS) using the saddle-point expansion method in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianities (PNG). The precision is…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-11 Ji-Yuan Ke , Yun Wang , Ping He

An exploit of the Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) algorithm using Differential Algebra (DA) techniques is derived to develop an efficient particle filter. The filter creates an original kind of particles, called scout particles, that…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Simone Servadio

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-03 George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

Measuring the growth rate of large-scale structures (f) as a function of redshift has the potential to break degeneracies between modified gravity and dark energy models, when combined with expansion-rate probes. Direct estimates of…