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The classical likelihood ratio test (LRT) based on the asymptotic chi-squared distribution of the log likelihood is one of the fundamental tools of statistical inference. A recent universal LRT approach based on sample splitting provides…
In this paper, we consider testing the martingale difference hypothesis for high-dimensional time series. Our test is built on the sum of squares of the element-wise max-norm of the proposed matrix-valued nonlinear dependence measure at…
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a widely used method for maximum likelihood estimation in models with latent variables. For estimating mixtures of Gaussians, its iteration can be viewed as a soft version of the k-means…
A confidence sequence (CS) is a sequence of confidence intervals that is valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. These are useful in applications like A/B testing, multi-armed bandits, off-policy evaluation, election auditing,…
Consider the Gaussian sequence model under the additional assumption that a fixed fraction of the means is known. We study the problem of variance estimation from a frequentist Bayesian perspective. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE)…
While fiducial inference was widely considered a big blunder by R.A. Fisher, the goal he initially set --`inferring the uncertainty of model parameters on the basis of observations' -- has been continually pursued by many statisticians. To…
Deep Gaussian Processes learn probabilistic data representations for supervised learning by cascading multiple Gaussian Processes. While this model family promises flexible predictive distributions, exact inference is not tractable.…
We study time-uniform statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation (SA), which encompasses a bunch of applications in optimization and machine learning. To that end, we analyze the almost-sure convergence rates of the…
Many theoretical results for the lasso require the samples to be iid. Recent work has provided guarantees for the lasso assuming that the time series is generated by a sparse Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model with Gaussian innovations.…
A large class of problems in sciences and engineering can be formulated as the general problem of constructing random intervals with pre-specified coverage probabilities for the mean. Wee propose a general approach for statistical inference…
We consider a general regression model, without a scale parameter. Our aim is to construct a confidence interval for a scalar parameter of interest $\theta$ that utilizes the uncertain prior information that a distinct scalar parameter…
Gaussian processes have become a promising tool for various safety-critical settings, since the posterior variance can be used to directly estimate the model error and quantify risk. However, state-of-the-art techniques for safety-critical…
Mixtures of Gaussian (or normal) distributions arise in a variety of application areas. Many heuristics have been proposed for the task of finding the component Gaussians given samples from the mixture, such as the EM algorithm, a…
Especially when facing reliability data with limited information (e.g., a small number of failures), there are strong motivations for using Bayesian inference methods. These include the option to use information from physics-of-failure or…
Traditional meta-analysis assumes that the effect sizes estimated in individual studies follow a Gaussian distribution. However, this distributional assumption is not always satisfied in practice, leading to potentially biased results. In…
Nonparametric Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian processes have recently become popular in the empirical learning community. They encompass many classical methods of statistics, like Radial Basis Functions or various splines, and are…
We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…
In this paper, we develop {finite-time horizon} causal filters using the nonanticipative rate distortion theory. We apply the {developed} theory to {design optimal filters for} time-varying multidimensional Gauss-Markov processes, subject…
In the Gaussian linear regression model (with unknown mean and variance), we show that the standard confidence set for one or two regression coefficients is admissible in the sense of Joshi (1969). This solves a long-standing open problem…
We develop a nonparametric extension of the sequential generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) test and corresponding time-uniform confidence sequences for the mean of a univariate distribution. By utilizing a geometric interpretation of the GLR…