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We solve the problem of estimating the distribution of presumed i.i.d. observations for the total variation loss. Our approach is based on density models and is versatile enough to cope with many different ones, including some density…
Compressive sensing has become a powerful addition to uncertainty quantification in recent years. This paper identifies new bases for random variables through linear mappings such that the representation of the quantity of interest is more…
Measures of biodiversity change such as the Living Planet Index describe proportional change in the abundance of a typical species, which can be thought of as change in the size of a community. Here, I discuss the orthogonal concept of…
The population size ("abundance") of wildlife species has central interest in ecological research and management. Distance sampling is a dominant approach to the estimation of wildlife abundance for many vertebrate animal species. One…
Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of machine learning models, providing important insights into the reliability of predictions and aiding the decision-making process in real-world applications. This paper proposes a novel way…
Uncertainty estimation is essential to make neural networks trustworthy in real-world applications. Extensive research efforts have been made to quantify and reduce predictive uncertainty. However, most existing works are designed for…
In this paper we consider the estimation of unknown parameters in Bayesian inverse problems. In most cases of practical interest, there are several barriers to performing such estimation, This includes a numerical approximation of a…
Understanding functional diversity, the range and variability of species' roles and actions within their communities, is key to predicting and preserving the functions that sustain both nature and human well-being. In this paper, we provide…
Capture-recapture methods aim to estimate the size of a closed population on the basis of multiple incomplete enumerations of individuals. In many applications, the individual probability of being recorded is heterogeneous in the…
Accurately estimating semantic aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in large language models (LLMs) is particularly challenging in free-form question answering (QA), where obtaining stable estimates often requires many expensive…
We consider a multivariate density model where we estimate the excess mass of the unknown probability density $f$ at a given level $\nu>0$ from $n$ i.i.d. observed random variables. This problem has several applications such as…
We propose a monitoring strategy for efficient and robust estimation of disease prevalence and case numbers within closed and enumerated populations such as schools, workplaces, or retirement communities. The proposed design relies largely…
Matching a nonprobability sample to a probability sample is one strategy both for selecting the nonprobability units and for weighting them. This approach has been employed in the past to select subsamples of persons from a large panel of…
Complementarity among species with different traits is one of the basic processes affecting biodiversity, defined as the number of species in the ecosystem. We present here a soluble model ecosystem in which the species are characterized by…
In circular plot sampling, trees within a given distance from the sample plot location constitute a sample, which is used to infer characteristics of interest for the forest area. If the sample is collected using a technical device located…
Assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding is an important step in observational studies, which typically estimate effects under the assumption that all confounders are measured. In this paper, we develop a sensitivity analysis…
Ecologists use distance sampling to estimate the abundance of plants and animals while correcting for undetected individuals. By design, data collection is simplified by requiring only the distances from a transect to the detected…
We present an online and data-driven uncertainty quantification method to enable the development of safe human-robot collaboration applications. Safety and risk assessment of systems are strongly correlated with the accuracy of…
The objective of this paper is to propose an unbiased ratio-type estimator for finite population mean when the variables are negatively correlated. Hartley and Ross[2] and Singh and Singh [6] estimators are identified as particular cases of…
This paper introduces a novel approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from…