Related papers: Tractable Bounding of Counterfactual Queries by Kn…

Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…

We study the problem of learning a Bayesian network (BN) of a set of variables when structural side information about the system is available. It is well known that learning the structure of a general BN is both computationally and…

In this paper we consider the problem of combining multiple probabilistic causal models, provided by different experts, under the requirement that the aggregated model satisfy the criterion of counterfactual fairness. We build upon the work…

Counterfactual explanations promote explainability in machine learning models by answering the question "how should an input instance be perturbed to obtain a desired predicted label?". The comparison of this instance before and after…

Existing methods for structure discovery in time series data construct interpretable, compositional kernels for Gaussian process regression models. While the learned Gaussian process model provides posterior mean and variance estimates,…

Discovering a unique causal structure is difficult due to both inherent identifiability issues, and the consequences of finite data. As such, uncertainty over causal structures, such as those obtained from a Bayesian posterior, are often…

Knowledge bases are widely used for information management, enabling high-impact applications such as web search, question answering, and natural language processing. They also serve as the backbone for automatic decision systems, e.g., for…

We construct a probabilistic coherence measure for information sets which determines a partial coherence ordering. This measure is applied in constructing a criterion for expanding our beliefs in the face of new information. A number of…

The standard approach to answering an identifiable causal-effect query (e.g., $P(Y|do(X)$) when given a causal diagram and observational data is to first generate an estimand, or probabilistic expression over the observable variables, which…

We propose a novel method for modeling data by using structural models based on economic theory as regularizers for statistical models. We show that even if a structural model is misspecified, as long as it is informative about the…

Causal Modeling Semantics (CMS, e.g., Galles and Pearl 1998; Pearl 2000; Halpern 2000) is a powerful framework for evaluating counterfactuals whose antecedent is a conjunction of atomic formulas. We extend CMS to an evaluation of the…

A new general framework is presented for implementing complex a priori knowledge, having in mind especially situations where the number of available training data is small compared to the complexity of the learning task. A priori…

Probabilistic sentential decision diagrams are a class of structured-decomposable probabilistic circuits especially designed to embed logical constraints. To adapt the classical LearnSPN scheme to learn the structure of these models, we…

Structural equation models (SEMs) have been widely adopted for inference of causal interactions in complex networks. Recent examples include unveiling topologies of hidden causal networks over which processes such as spreading diseases, or…

Causal parameters may not be point identified in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, information about non-identified parameters, in the form of bounds, may still be recovered from the observed data in some cases. We develop a…

Calculation of Bayesian posteriors and model evidences typically requires numerical integration. Bayesian quadrature (BQ), a surrogate-model-based approach to numerical integration, is capable of superb sample efficiency, but its lack of…

In order to facilitate the accesses of general users to knowledge graphs, an increasing effort is being exerted to construct graph-structured queries of given natural language questions. At the core of the construction is to deduce the…

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by…

Bayesian networks (BNs) are a widely used class of probabilistic graphical models employed in numerous application domains. However, inferring the network's graphical structure from data remains challenging. Bayesian structure learners…

There is a brief description of the probabilistic causal graph model for representing, reasoning with, and learning causal structure using Bayesian networks. It is then argued that this model is closely related to how humans reason with and…