Related papers: Precursor that predicts the earthquakes, triggers,…
Public earthquake early warning systems have the potential to reduce individual risk by warning people of an incoming tremor but their development has been hampered by costly infrastructure. Furthermore, users' understanding of such a…
It is well-known that biological phenomena are emergent. Emergent phenomena are quite interesting and amazing. However, they are difficult to be understood. Due to this difficulty, we propose a theory to describe emergence based on a…
Earthquakes are measured using well defined seismic parameters such as seismic moment (Mo), moment magnitude (Mw), and released elastic energy(E). How this tremendous amount of energy is accumulated silently deep inside the earth's crust?…
This paper provides both an introduction to and a detailed overview of the principles and practice of classifier calibration. A well-calibrated classifier correctly quantifies the level of uncertainty or confidence associated with its…
Spring-block models, such as the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) model, were introduced several years ago to describe earthquake dynamics in the context of selforganized criticality. With the aim to address the dependency of the seismicity…
Earthquakes are major hazards to humans, buildings and infrastructure. Early warning methods aim to provide advance notice of incoming strong shaking to enable preventive action and mitigate seismic risk. Their usefulness depends on…
The earthquake-like model with a continuous distribution of static thresholds is used to describe the properties of solid friction. The evolution of the model is reduced to a master equation which can be solved analytically. This approach…
We investigate precursors and predictability of extreme increments in a time series. The events we are focusing on consist in large increments within successive time steps. We are especially interested in understanding how the quality of…
Accurate damage prediction is crucial for disaster preparedness and response strategies, particularly given the frequent earthquakes in Turkey. Utilizing datasets on earthquake data, infrastructural quality metrics, and contemporary…
Endurance time method is a time history dynamic analysis in which structures are subjected to predesigned intensifying excitations. This method provides a tool for response prediction that correlates structural responses to the intensity of…
Seismograms, the fundamental seismic records, have revolutionized earthquake research and monitoring. Recent advancements in deep learning have further enhanced seismic signal processing, leading to even more precise and effective…
This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…
Many forecasts consist not of point predictions but concern the evolution of quantities. For example, a central bank might predict the interest rates during the next quarter, an epidemiologist might predict trajectories of infection rates,…
In the last few years, deep learning has solved seemingly intractable problems, boosting the hope to find approximate solutions to problems that now are considered unsolvable. Earthquake prediction, the Grail of Seismology, is, in this…
The paper is a first attempt for statistical estimation of method for a short time prediction of incoming earthquake in the Balkan and Black Sea region from January to June, 2002. The essence of the discovery is that the geomagnetic local…
An article for the Springer Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science
An attempt is made in this work to decompose the "strange attractor like" seismic electric precursor into more simple and elementary components. The basic data files of the orthogonal (NS, EW) components of the Earth's electric field used…
In this paper, we introduce a large class of (so-called) conditional indicators, on a complete probability space with respect to a sub $\sigma$-algebra. A conditional indicator is a positive mapping, which is not necessary linear, but may…
Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…
Earthquakes are complex physical processes driven by the stick-slip motion of a sliding fault. After the main quake, a series of aftershocks typically follows. These are loosely defined as events that follow a given event and occur within…