Related papers: Precursor that predicts the earthquakes, triggers,…
Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…
The paper offers physical bases of earth EM emission in the earthquake preparation period.
Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquake have been reported over centuries. Radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes, earthquake lights near the epicenter are recognized as pre-earthquake signals to approach…
The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be…
Here a method is presented for detecting precursors of earthquakes from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. Regional Entropy of Seismic Information, a quantity representing the average influence of an earthquake in the…
A precursory dynamics, motivated by the analysis of recent experiments on solid-on-solid friction, is introduced in a continuous cellular automaton that mimics the essential physical contents of earthquake source processes. The resulting…
It is useful to consider the earthquakes in terms of catastrophe theory. In the paper, we illustrate this statement by analysis foreshocks preceding the strong earthquakes. We focused on the so-called catastrophe flags, and on the triggers…
We examine the precursory behavior of geoelectric signals before large earthquakes by means of an algorithm including an alarm-based model and binary classification. This algorithm, introduced originally by Chen and Chen [Nat. Hazards., 84,…
A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be preceded by a…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…
The concept of a triad of tectonic earthquakes as a natural trinity of foreshocks, main shock and aftershocks is introduced. The basis for classifying the main shocks is the belonging of the main shock to one or another category of triads.…
We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current…
We review the present status of our research and understanding regarding the dynamics and the statistical properties of earthquakes, mainly from a statistical physical viewpoint. Emphasis is put both on the physics of friction and fracture,…
Today, observations of earthquake precursors remain widely debated. While precursory slow slip is an important feature of earthquake nucleation, foreshock sequences are not always observed and their temporal evolution remains unconstrained.…
This paper is devoted to show the advantages of introducing a geometric viewpoint and a non extensive formulation in the description of apparently unrelated phenomena: combustion and earthquakes. Here, it is shown how the introduction of a…
The exact mechanisms leading to an earthquake are not fully understood and the space-time structural features are non-trivial. Previous studies suggest the seismicity of very low intensity earthquakes, known as micro-earthquakes, may…
We present a simple model of earthquakes on a pre-existing hierarchical fault network. The system self-organizes on long time scales in a stationary state with a power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes. The largest…
We propose a new type of earthquake precursor based on the analysis of correlation dynamics between geophysical signals of different nature. The precursor is found using a two-parameter cross-correlation function introduced within the…
Fundamentally related to the UV divergence problem in Physics, conventional wisdom in seismology is that the smallest earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate the triggering of major earthquakes, making the…