Related papers: Bayesian Parameter Inference for Partially Observe…

We address the approximation of functionals depending on a system of particles, described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs), in the mean-field limit when the number of particles approaches infinity. This problem is equivalent to…

Bayesian methods hold significant promise for improving the uncertainty quantification ability and robustness of deep neural network models. Recent research has seen the investigation of a number of approximate Bayesian inference methods…

We address the problem of simulation and parameter inference for chemical reaction networks described by the chemical Langevin equation, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) representation of the dynamics of the chemical species. This…

In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…

We introduce a Monte Carlo Virtual Element estimator based on Virtual Element discretizations for stochastic elliptic partial differential equations with random diffusion coefficients. We prove estimates for the statistical approximation…

This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…

This paper is concerned with Merton's portfolio optimization problem in a Volterra stochastic environment described by a multivariate fake stationary Volterra--Heston model. Due to the non-Markovianity and non-semimartingality of the…

There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…

We deal with the problem of parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in a partially observed framework. We aim to design a method working for both elliptic and hypoelliptic SDEs, the latters being characterized by…

This paper proposes a fast two-stage variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm to estimate unrestricted panel spatial autoregressive models. Using Dirichlet-Laplace priors, we are able to uncover the spatial relationships between cross-sectional…

Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…

Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…

Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew…

This paper investigates the valuation of variable annuity contracts with an early surrender option under non-Markovian models. Moreover, policyholders are provided with guaranteed minimum maturity and death benefits to protect against the…

We consider Bayesian variable selection for binary outcomes under a probit link with a spike-and-slab prior on the regression coefficients. Motivated by the computational challenges encountered by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers in…

This paper proposes a novel low-rank approximation to the multivariate State-Space Model. The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach is applied component-wise to the independent-in-time Mat\'ern Gaussian innovation term in…

We apply the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm to the financial time sires analysis of the stochastic volatility (SV) model for the first time. The HMC algorithm is used for the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) update of volatility…

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

L\'evy processes, known for their ability to model complex dynamics with skewness, heavy tails and discontinuities, play a critical role in stochastic modeling across various domains. However, inference for most L\'evy processes, whether in…

We consider rough stochastic volatility models where the variance process satisfies a stochastic Volterra equation with the fractional kernel, as in the rough Bergomi and the rough Heston model. In particular, the variance process is…