Related papers: Bayesian Parameter Inference for Partially Observe…
Traditional partial differential equations with constant coefficients often struggle to capture abrupt changes in real-world phenomena, leading to the development of variable coefficient PDEs and Markovian switching models. Recently,…
In conducting non-linear dimensionality reduction and feature learning, it is common to suppose that the data lie near a lower-dimensional manifold. A class of model-based approaches for such problems includes latent variables in an unknown…
We generalize the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method of Giles to the simulation of systems of particles that interact via a mean field. When the number of particles is large, these systems are described by a McKean-Vlasov process - a…
Spatial count data models are used to explain and predict the frequency of phenomena such as traffic accidents in geographically distinct entities such as census tracts or road segments. These models are typically estimated using Bayesian…
We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…
State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…
A formal mean square error expansion (MSE) is derived for Euler--Maruyama numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDE). The error expansion is used to construct a pathwise a posteriori adaptive time stepping…
This paper presents the error analysis of numerical methods on graded meshes for stochastic Volterra equations with weakly singular kernels. We first prove a novel regularity estimate for the exact solution via analyzing the associated…
The simulation of the expectation of a stochastic quantity E[Y] by Monte Carlo methods is known to be computationally expensive especially if the stochastic quantity or its approximation Y_n is expensive to simulate, e.g., the solution of a…
Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are ubiquitous in Bayesian computations. However, they need to access the full data set in order to evaluate the posterior density at every step of the algorithm. This results in a great…
We propose a new theoretical framework that exploits convolution kernels to transform a Volterra-type path-dependent (non-Markovian) stochastic process into a standard (Markovian) diffusion process. Remarkably, it is also possible to go…
Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to describe systems in many areas of science. To ensure these models provide accurate and interpretable representations of real-world dynamics, it is often necessary to infer…
We present a simulation methodology for Bayesian estimation of rate parameters in Markov jump processes arising for example in stochastic kinetic models. To handle the problem of missing components and measurement errors in observed data,…
In this paper we address the problem of the prohibitively large computational cost of existing Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for large--scale applications with high dimensional parameter spaces, e.g. in uncertainty quantification in…
The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…
In this paper, we study the Euler--Maruyama scheme for a particle method to approximate the McKean--Vlasov dynamics of calibrated local-stochastic volatility (LSV) models. Given the open question of well-posedness of the original problem,…
This paper investigates the long-time asymptotics and the existence of stationary solutions for a class of stochastic Volterra equations (SVEs). To address the non-Markovian nature of SVEs, we employ a Markovian lifting technique,…
We propose a two stage procedure for the estimation of the parameters of a fairly general, continuous-time stochastic volatility. An important ingredient of the proposed method is the Cuchiero-Teichmann volatility estimator, which is based…
This paper investigates the approximation of invariant measures for McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (SDEs) using the Euler-Maruyama (EM) scheme under a monotonicity condition. Firstly, the convergence of the numerical…