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Related papers: Jointly Estimating Subnational Mortality for Multi…

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Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Chunyuan Li , Nikhil Mehta , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

Small area estimates of population are necessary for many epidemiological studies, yet their quality and accuracy are often not assessed. In the United States, small area estimates of population counts are published by the United States…

The focus of the present paper is to forecast mortality rates for small sub-populations that are parts of a larger super-population. In this setting the assumption is that it is possible to produce reliable forecasts for the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-22 Mathias Lindholm , Gabriele Pittarello

Epidemiological investigations of regionally aggregated spatial data often involve detecting spatial health disparities among neighboring regions on a map of disease mortality or incidence rates. Analyzing such data introduces spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Kyle Lin Wu , Sudipto Banerjee

Racialized economic segregation, a key metric that simultaneously accounts for spatial, social and income polarization, has been linked to adverse health outcomes, including morbidity and mortality; however, statistical methods for…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-21 Yang Xu , Loni Philip Tabb

Disease mapping analyses the distribution of several disease outcomes within a territory. Primary goals include identifying areas with unexpected changes in mortality rates, studying the relation among multiple diseases, and dividing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Andrea Sottosanti , Enrico Bovo , Pietro Belloni , Giovanna Boccuzzo

Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-06 Connor Gascoigne , Theresa Smith , John Paige , Jon Wakefield

Understanding the underlying causes of maternal death across all regions of the world is essential to inform policies and resource allocation to reduce the mortality burden. However, in many countries there exists very little data on the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-09 Monica Alexander , Michael Y. C. Chong , Marija Pejcinovska

In public health management there is a need to produce subnational estimates of health outcomes. Often, however, funds are not available to collect samples large enough to produce traditional survey sample estimates for each subnational…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-18 Donald Malec , Peter Müller

Existing datasets available to address crucial problems, such as child mortality and family planning discontinuation in developing countries, are not ample for data-driven approaches. This is partly due to disjoint data collection efforts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Girmaw Abebe Tadesse , Celia Cintas , Skyler Speakman , Komminist Weldemariam

A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-30 Han Lin Shang

We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-03 Marco Stefanucci , Stefano Mazzuco

In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Han Lin Shang , Steven Haberman

Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-20 Man Chung Fung , Gareth W. Peters , Pavel V. Shevchenko

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-07 Silvio C. Patricio , Paola Vazquez-Castillo

Estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are used to track progress in reducing child mortality and to evaluate countries' performance related to Millennium Development Goal 4. However, for the great majority of developing…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-20 Leontine Alkema , Jin Rou New

Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Han Lin Shang , Cristian F. Jiménez-Varón

In most cases, mortality is analysed considering summary indicators (e.~g. $e_0$ or $e^{\dagger}_0$) that either focus on a specific mortality component or pool all component-specific information in one measure. This can be a limitation,…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-16 Ainhoa-Elena Léger , Stefano Mazzuco

Accurate estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes new models to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in…