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In this paper we propose augmented interval Markov chains (AIMCs): a generalisation of the familiar interval Markov chains (IMCs) where uncertain transition probabilities are in addition allowed to depend on one another. This new model…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2017-01-12 Ventsislav Chonev

The analysis of many problems of interest associated with Markov chains, e.g. stationary distributions, moments of first passage time distributions and moments of occupation time random variables, involves the solution of a system of linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-08-29 Jeffrey J. Hunter

We establish Hoeffding-type concentration inequalities for the low and high tail bounds of sums of exchangeable random variables. Our results exhibit an anti-symmetry in such tail bounds due to the assumption of exchangeability, a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Nina Maria Gottschling , Michele Caprio

In this paper, we study the concentration properties of quadratic forms associated with Markov chains using the martingale decomposition method introduced by Atchad\'e and Cattaneo (2014). In particular, we derive concentration inequalities…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-14 Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Sergey Samsonov

Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

We address the problem of community detection in networks by introducing a general definition of Markov stability, based on the difference between the probability fluxes of a Markov chain on the network at different time scales. The…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-05 Aurelio Patelli , Andrea Gabrielli , Giulio Cimini

This paper gathers together different conditions which are all equivalent to geometric ergodicity of time-homogeneous Markov chains on general state spaces. A total of 34 different conditions are presented (27 for general chains plus 7 just…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-06 M. A. Gallegos-Herrada , D. Ledvinka , J. S. Rosenthal

This paper provides a convergence analysis for generalized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers, a family of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on leapfrog integration of Hamiltonian dynamics and kinetic Langevin diffusion, that encompasses…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Evan Camrud , Alain Durmus , Pierre Monmarché , Gabriel Stoltz

A divide-and-conquer approach to analyzing Markov chains (MCs) is not utilized as widely as it could be, despite its potential benefits. One primary reason for this is the fact that most MC decomposition approaches involve a complex and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-25 Katsunobu Sasanuma , Robert Hampshire , Alan Scheller-Wolf

We study limit theorems for partial sums of instantaneous functions of a homogeneous Markov chain on a general state space. The summands are heavy-tailed and the limits are stable distributions. The conditions imposed on the transition…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Mohamed El Machkouri , Adam Jakubowski , Dalibor Volný

The aim of this note is to investigate the concentration properties of unbounded functions of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. We derive concentration properties of centered functions with respect to the square of the Lyapunov's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-14 Olivier Wintenberger

Despite the ubiquity of U-statistics in modern Probability and Statistics, their non-asymptotic analysis in a dependent framework may have been overlooked. In a recent work, a new concentration inequality for U-statistics of order two for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-25 Quentin Duchemin , Yohann De Castro , Claire Lacour

We investigate the use of a certain class of functional inequalities known as weak Poincar\'e inequalities to bound convergence of Markov chains to equilibrium. We show that this enables the straightforward and transparent derivation of…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-25 Christophe Andrieu , Anthony Lee , Sam Power , Andi Q. Wang

We study the relation between different Markov Decision Process (MDP) frameworks in the machine learning and econometrics literatures, including the standard MDP, the entropy and general regularized MDP, and stochastic MDP, where the latter…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-19 Tien Mai , Patrick Jaillet

The aim of this paper is to establish Hoeffding and Bernstein type concentration inequalities for weighted sums of exchangeable random variables. A special case is the i.i.d. setting, where random variables are sampled independently from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-11 Rina Foygel Barber

The limiting probability distribution is one of the key characteristics of a Markov chain since it shows its long-term behavior. In this paper, for a higher order Markov chain, we establish some properties related to its exact limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Lixing Han , Jianhong Xu

We prove a Chernoff-type bound for sums of matrix-valued random variables sampled via a regular (aperiodic and irreducible) finite Markov chain. Specially, consider a random walk on a regular Markov chain and a Hermitian matrix-valued…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-30 Jiezhong Qiu , Chi Wang , Ben Liao , Richard Peng , Jie Tang

In this paper we study the central limit theorem for additive functionals of stationary Markov chains with general state space by using a new idea involving conditioning with respect to both the past and future of the chain. Practically, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Magda Peligrad

In order to give quantitative estimates for approximating the ergodic limit, we investigate probabilistic limit behaviors of time-averaging estimators of numerical discretizations for a class of time-homogeneous Markov processes, by…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-13 Chuchu Chen , Tonghe Dang , Jialin Hong , Guoting Song

Generalization of the Lorden's inequality is an excellent tool for obtaining strong upper bounds for the convergence rate for various complicated stochastic models. This paper demonstrates a method for obtaining such bounds for some…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-13 Galina Zverkina