Related papers: A Markov-switching spatio-temporal ARCH model
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
We propose a novel Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects among alternative patterns of exclusion restrictions to identify structural shocks…
This paper investigates the structural dynamics of stock market volatility through the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor- and eigenvalue-based measure designed to capture realized volatility via mutual fluctuations among asset prices.…
In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…
Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging…
Orthogonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (OGARCH) is widely used in finance industry to produce volatility and correlation forecasts. We show that the classic OGARCH model, nevertheless, tends to be too…
A Markov switching asymmetric GARCH model which imposes more leverage effect of the negative shocks is considered. The asymptotic behavior of the second moment is investigated and an upper bound for it is calculated. A bayesian strategy…
We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…
Geo-referenced data are characterized by an inherent spatial dependence due to the geographical proximity. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) process to describe the…
Financial markets tend to switch between various market regimes over time, making stationarity-based models unsustainable. We construct a regime-switching model independent of asset classes for risk-adjusted return predictions based on…
We develop a procedure for forecasting the volatility of a time series immediately following a news shock. Adapting the similarity-based framework of Lin and Eck (2020), we exploit series that have experienced similar shocks. We aggregate…
In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH…
Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…
Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in…
The use of factor stochastic volatility models requires choosing the number of latent factors used to describe the dynamics of the financial returns process; however, empirical evidence suggests that the number and makeup of pertinent…
This paper explores the estimation of a dynamic spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model. The log-volatility term in this model can depend on (i) the spatial lag of the log-squared outcome variable, (ii) the…
Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of real-world financial time series when there are a lot of cross-sectional financial assets. While network analysis helps connect stocks that are 'similar' or 'correlated', which is…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…