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The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…

Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and…

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the…

Optical flow estimation can be formulated as an end-to-end supervised learning problem, which yields estimates with a superior accuracy-runtime tradeoff compared to alternative methodology. In this paper, we make such networks estimate…

A major challenge in next-generation industrial applications is to improve numerical analysis by quantifying uncertainties in predictions. In this work we present a formulation of a fully nonlinear and dispersive potential flow water wave…

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

In this paper, we develop a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of the two-fluid model-based multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) for bubbly flow simulations. The proposed…

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly…

In the context of industrially mass-manufactured products, quality management is based on physically inspecting a small sample from a large batch and reasoning about the batch's quality conformance. When complementing physical inspections…

In computational materials science, mechanical properties are typically extracted from simulations by means of analysis routines that seek to mimic their experimental counterparts. However, simulated data often exhibit uncertainties that…

This paper proposes a physics-guided machine learning approach that combines advanced machine learning models and physics-based models to improve the prediction of water flow and temperature in river networks. We first build a recurrent…

In computational fluid dynamics simulations of industrial flows, models based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier--Stokes (RANS) equations are expected to play an important role in decades to come. However, model uncertainties are still a major…

We introduce an unsupervised formulation to estimate heteroscedastic uncertainty in retrieval systems. We propose an extension to triplet loss that models data uncertainty for each input. Besides improving performance, our formulation…

Despite of its importance for safe machine learning, uncertainty quantification for neural networks is far from being solved. State-of-the-art approaches to estimate neural uncertainties are often hybrid, combining parametric models with…

Uncertainty quantification enables users to assess the reliability of responses generated by large language models (LLMs). We present a novel Question Rephrasing technique to evaluate the input uncertainty of LLMs, which refers to the…

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product…

Quantifying uncertainty in deep regression models is important both for understanding the confidence of the model and for safe decision-making in high-risk domains. Existing approaches that yield prediction intervals overlook distributional…

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…