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Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-11 Alex Tank , Emily B. Fox , Ali Shojaie

In many problems, a sensible estimator of a possibly multivariate monotone function may itself fail to be monotone. We study the correction of such an estimator obtained via projection onto the space of functions monotone over a finite grid…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-06 Ted Westling , Mark van der Laan , Marco Carone

A practical challenge for structural estimation is the requirement to accurately minimize a sample objective function which is often non-smooth, non-convex, or both. This paper proposes a simple algorithm designed to find accurate solutions…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-19 Jean-Jacques Forneron

We propose a distributed bootstrap method for simultaneous inference on high-dimensional massive data that are stored and processed with many machines. The method produces an $\ell_\infty$-norm confidence region based on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-15 Yang Yu , Shih-Kang Chao , Guang Cheng

Parametric verification of linear temporal properties for stochastic models can be expressed as computing the satisfaction probability of a certain property as a function of the parameters of the model. Smoothed model checking (smMC) aims…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Luca Bortolussi , Francesca Cairoli , Ginevra Carbone , Paolo Pulcini

Multivariate time series forecasting is widely used in various fields. Reasonable prediction results can assist people in planning and decision-making, generate benefits and avoid risks. Normally, there are two characteristics of time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Yifu Zhou , Ziheng Duan , Haoyan Xu , Jie Feng , Anni Ren , Yueyang Wang , Xiaoqian Wang

Continuous-time state estimation is gaining in popularity due to its abilities to provide smooth solutions, handle asynchronous sensors, and interpolate between data points. While there are two main paradigms, parametric (e.g., temporal…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Connor Holmes , Sven Lilge , Zi Cong Guo , Frank Dellaert , Timothy D. Barfoot

This paper addresses inference in large panel data models in the presence of both cross-sectional and temporal dependence of unknown form. We are interested in making inferences that do not rely on the choice of any smoothing parameter as…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-26 J. Hidalgo , M. Schafgans

We aim to develop simultaneous inference tools for the mean function of functional data from sparse to dense. First, we derive a unified Gaussian approximation to construct simultaneous confidence bands of mean functions based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-01 Leheng Cai , Qirui Hu

Accurate and reliable state of charge (SoC) estimation becomes increasingly important to provide a stable and efficient environment for Lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) powered devices. Most data-driven SoC models are built for a fixed ambient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-12 Yan Qin , Stefan Adams , Chau Yuen

Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-27 Huang Huang , Dorit Hammerling , Bo Li , Richard Smith

We develop a new approach for estimating the risk of an arbitrary estimator of the mean vector in the classical normal means problem. The key idea is to generate two auxiliary data vectors, by adding carefully constructed normal noise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-25 Natalia L. Oliveira , Jing Lei , Ryan J. Tibshirani

This paper develops a variance estimation framework for matching estimators that enables valid population inference for treatment effects. We provide theoretical analysis of a variance estimator that addresses key limitations in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-16 Xiang Meng , Aaron Smith , Luke Miratrix

Today, generalized linear mixed models are broadly used in many fields. However, the development of tools for performing simultaneous inference has been largely neglected in this domain. A framework for joint inference is indispensable to…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-12 Katarzyna Reluga , María-José Lombardía , Stefan Sperlich

Time evolving surfaces can be modeled as two-dimensional Functional time series, exploiting the tools of Functional data analysis. Leveraging this approach, a forecasting framework for such complex data is developed. The main focus revolves…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Niccolò Ajroldi , Jacopo Diquigiovanni , Matteo Fontana , Simone Vantini

We develop a new model for spatial random field reconstruction of a binary-valued spatial phenomenon. In our model, sensors are deployed in a wireless sensor network across a large geographical region. Each sensor measures a non-Gaussian…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-12 Shunan Sheng , Qikun Xiang , Ido Nevat , Ariel Neufeld

We consider the problem of adaptive inference on a regression function at a point under a multivariate nonparametric regression setting. The regression function belongs to a H\"older class and is assumed to be monotone with respect to some…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Koohyun Kwon , Soonwoo Kwon

This paper develops bootstrap procedures for inference in linear regression models with two-way clustered data. We characterize the estimator's asymptotic behavior in five mutually exclusive and exhaustive regimes: three Gaussian and two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-04 Ulrich Hounyo , Jiahao Lin

We propose a generalized partially linear functional single index risk score model for repeatedly measured outcomes where the index itself is a function of time. We fuse the nonparametric kernel method and regression spline method, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-15 Fei Jiang , Yanyuan Ma , Yuanjia Wang

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a scalable and memory-efficient optimization algorithm for large datasets and stream data, which has drawn a great deal of attention and popularity. The applications of SGD-based estimators to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-04 Ruiqi Liu , Xi Chen , Zuofeng Shang