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Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

We recently proposed a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions by minimization of their Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to a more convenient approximating distribution. In this note we offer…

Computation · Statistics 2014-01-10 Tim Salimans

We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…

Computation · Statistics 2014-07-29 Tim Salimans , David A. Knowles

In a first part, we present a mathematical analysis of a general methodology of a probabilistic learning inference that allows for estimating a posterior probability model for a stochastic boundary value problem from a prior probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Christian Soize

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow for constructing surrogate models of a physical model polluted by additive noise to efficiently quantify forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Existing surrogate modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Minglei Yang , Pengjun Wang , Ming Fan , Dan Lu , Yanzhao Cao , Guannan Zhang

We propose a method to fuse posterior distributions learned from heterogeneous datasets. Our algorithm relies on a mean field assumption for both the fused model and the individual dataset posteriors and proceeds using a simple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Sebastian Claici , Mikhail Yurochkin , Soumya Ghosh , Justin Solomon

Learning to sample from intractable distributions over discrete sets without relying on corresponding training data is a central problem in a wide range of fields, including Combinatorial Optimization. Currently, popular deep learning-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Sebastian Sanokowski , Sepp Hochreiter , Sebastian Lehner

When a statistical model $\{P_{\theta} : \theta \in \Theta\}$ lacks analytically tractable likelihoods, parametric statistical inference based on data generated from an unknown underlying distribution $P$ can still be performed as long as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Peter Matthew Jacobs , Lekha Patel , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

This paper considers properties of an optimization based sampler for targeting the posterior distribution when the likelihood is intractable and auxiliary statistics are used to summarize information in the data. Our reverse sampler…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-02 Jean-Jacques Forneron , Serena Ng

Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-11 Adam D. Cobb , Stephen J. Roberts , Yarin Gal

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a promising Bayesian inference framework that alleviates the need for analytic likelihoods to estimate posterior distributions. Recent advances using neural density estimators in SBI algorithms have…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-13 Justine Zeghal , François Lanusse , Alexandre Boucaud , Benjamin Remy , Eric Aubourg

We revisit empirical Bayes in the absence of a tractable likelihood function, as is typical in scientific domains relying on computer simulations. We investigate how the empirical Bayesian can make use of neural density estimators first to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-02 Maxime Vandegar , Michael Kagan , Antoine Wehenkel , Gilles Louppe

For many applications, such as computing the expected value of different magnitudes, sampling from a known probability density function, the target density, is crucial but challenging through the inverse transform. In these cases, rejection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-24 Sebastian Pina-Otey , Thorsten Lux , Federico Sánchez , Vicens Gaitan

Recent work has attempted to directly approximate the `function-space' or predictive posterior distribution of Bayesian models, without approximating the posterior distribution over the parameters. This is appealing in e.g. Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-19 David R. Burt , Sebastian W. Ober , Adrià Garriga-Alonso , Mark van der Wilk

Training generative models to sample from unnormalized density functions is an important and challenging task in machine learning. Traditional training methods often rely on the reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Jiajun He , Wenlin Chen , Mingtian Zhang , David Barber , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

We address the question of estimating Kullback-Leibler losses rather than squared losses in recovery problems where the noise is distributed within the exponential family. Inspired by Stein unbiased risk estimator (SURE), we exhibit…

Applications · Statistics 2017-08-22 Charles-Alban Deledalle

In this paper we study algorithms to find a Gaussian approximation to a target measure defined on a Hilbert space of functions; the target measure itself is defined via its density with respect to a reference Gaussian measure. We employ the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-08-11 Frank J. Pinski , Gideon Simpson , Andrew M. Stuart , Hendrik Weber

Conservative inference is a major concern in simulation-based inference. It has been shown that commonly used algorithms can produce overconfident posterior approximations. Balancing has empirically proven to be an effective way to mitigate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-24 Arnaud Delaunoy , Benjamin Kurt Miller , Patrick Forré , Christoph Weniger , Gilles Louppe

In this article, we investigate posterior convergence in nonparametric regression models where the unknown regression function is modeled by some appropriate stochastic process. In this regard, we consider two setups. The first setup is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Empirical risk minimization, a cornerstone in machine learning, is often hindered by the Optimizer's Curse stemming from discrepancies between the empirical and true data-generating distributions.To address this challenge, the robust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Haojie Yan , Minglong Zhou , Jiayi Guo
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