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Related papers: Unified Uncertainty Calibration

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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account…

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Angelika Kimmig , Murat Sensoy

Speech classification has attracted increasing attention due to its wide applications, particularly in classifying physical and mental states. However, these tasks are challenging due to the high variability in speech signals. Ensemble…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-25 Bagus Tris Atmaja , Felix Burkhardt

Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty due to measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty resulting from limited data, but not both in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Ilia Azizi , Juraj Bodik , Jakob Heiss , Bin Yu

Process capability indices such as $C_{pk}$ are widely used for manufacturing decisions, yet are typically applied via deterministic thresholding of finite-sample estimates, ignoring uncertainty and leading to unstable outcomes near the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-16 Fei Jiang , Lei Yang

Various strategies for active learning have been proposed in the machine learning literature. In uncertainty sampling, which is among the most popular approaches, the active learner sequentially queries the label of those instances for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Vu-Linh Nguyen , Sébastien Destercke , Eyke Hüllermeier

The wide and rapid adoption of deep learning by practitioners brought unintended consequences in many situations such as in the infamous case of Google Photos' racist image recognition algorithm; thus, necessitated the utilization of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-24 Mehmet Yigit Yildirim , Mert Ozer , Hasan Davulcu

We study post-calibration uncertainty for trained ensembles of classifiers. Specifically, we consider both aleatoric (label noise) and epistemic (model) uncertainty. Among the most popular and widely used calibration methods in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Jakob Heiss , Sören Lambrecht , Jakob Weissteiner , Hanna Wutte , Žan Žurič , Josef Teichmann , Bin Yu

This paper studies the problem of post-hoc calibration of machine learning classifiers. We introduce the following desiderata for uncertainty calibration: (a) accuracy-preserving, (b) data-efficient, and (c) high expressive power. We show…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Jize Zhang , Bhavya Kailkhura , T. Yong-Jin Han

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

Neural networks are ubiquitous in many tasks, but trusting their predictions is an open issue. Uncertainty quantification is required for many applications, and disentangled aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are best. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-21 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Daniel Saromo

Machine learning can significantly improve performance for decision-making under uncertainty across a wide range of domains. However, ensuring robustness guarantees requires well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, which can be difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Christopher Yeh , Nicolas Christianson , Alan Wu , Adam Wierman , Yisong Yue

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Alexey Kornaev , Elena Kornaeva , Oleg Ivanov , Ilya Pershin , Danis Alukaev

Machine unlearning aims to remove the influence of specific training data from a model while preserving reliable behavior on the remaining data, making reliable prediction and uncertainty estimation essential for evaluation. Calibration is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Divyaksh Shukla , Ashutosh Modi

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

It is often observed that the probabilistic predictions given by a machine learning model can disagree with averaged actual outcomes on specific subsets of data, which is also known as the issue of miscalibration. It is responsible for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Feiyang Pan , Xiang Ao , Pingzhong Tang , Min Lu , Dapeng Liu , Lei Xiao , Qing He

We introduce Unified Multimodal Uncertain Inference (UMUI), a multimodal inference task spanning text, audio, and video, where models must produce calibrated probability estimates of hypotheses conditioned on a premise in any modality or…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Dengjia Zhang , Alexander Martin , William Jurayj , Kenton Murray , Benjamin Van Durme , Reno Kriz

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying neural networks (NNs) in real-world applications. While existing calibration techniques often rely on post-hoc adjustments or coarse-grained binning methods, they remain limited in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

Code language models are increasingly adopted for both understanding and generative tasks. Despite their success, these models frequently produce overconfident incorrect predictions and underconfident correct predictions, undermining their…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Ravishka Rathnasuriya , Wei Yang