Related papers: If there is no underfitting, there is no Cold Post…

Counterfactual explanations (CFE) for deep image classifiers aim to reveal how minimal input changes lead to different model decisions, providing critical insights for model interpretation and improvement. However, existing CFE methods…

Semi-supervised learning by self-training heavily relies on pseudo-label selection (PLS). The selection often depends on the initial model fit on labeled data. Early overfitting might thus be propagated to the final model by selecting…

We show at a physics level of rigor that Bayesian inference with a fully connected neural network and a shaped nonlinearity of the form $\phi(t) = t + \psi t^3/L$ is (perturbatively) solvable in the regime where the number of training…

We discover a theoretical connection between explanation estimation and distribution compression that significantly improves the approximation of feature attributions, importance, and effects. While the exact computation of various machine…

The statistical evidence (or marginal likelihood) is a key quantity in Bayesian statistics, allowing one to assess the probability of the data given the model under investigation. This paper focuses on refining the power posterior approach…

Counterfactual explanations play an important role in detecting bias and improving the explainability of data-driven classification models. A counterfactual explanation (CE) is a minimal perturbed data point for which the decision of the…

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are a popular approach in explainable artificial intelligence (xAI), highlighting changes to input data necessary for altering a model's output. A CFE can either describe a scenario that is better than the…

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

Weather forecasting centers currently rely on statistical postprocessing methods to minimize forecast error. This improves skill but can lead to predictions that violate physical principles or disregard dependencies between variables, which…

Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…

We study Bayesian discriminative inference given a model family $p(c,\x, \theta)$ that is assumed to contain all our prior information but still known to be incorrect. This falls in between "standard" Bayesian generative modeling and…

Class imbalance has a detrimental effect on the predictive performance of most supervised learning algorithms as the imbalanced distribution can lead to a bias preferring the majority class. To solve this problem, we propose a Supervised…

Standard Bayesian learning is known to have suboptimal generalization capabilities under misspecification and in the presence of outliers. PAC-Bayes theory demonstrates that the free energy criterion minimized by Bayesian learning is a…

Calibration strengthens the trustworthiness of black-box models by producing better accurate confidence estimates on given examples. However, little is known about if model explanations can help confidence calibration. Intuitively, humans…

Calibration requires predictor outputs to be consistent with their Bayesian posteriors. For machine learning predictors that do not distinguish between small perturbations, calibration errors are continuous in predictions, e.g., smooth…

Although theoretically compelling, Bayesian learning with modern machine learning models is computationally challenging since it requires approximating a high dimensional posterior distribution. In this work, we (i) introduce posteriors, an…

We empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model,…

Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI) attempts to address model misspecification in a standard Bayesian setup by tempering the likelihood. The likelihood is raised to a fractional power, called the learning rate, which reduces its importance…

Overfitting describes a machine learning phenomenon where the model fits too closely to the training data, resulting in poor generalization. While this occurrence is thoroughly documented for many forms of supervised learning, it is not…