Related papers: Combining Deep Learning and GARCH Models for Finan…

We propose a hybrid model of portfolio credit risk where the dynamics of the underlying latent variables is governed by a one factor GARCH process. The distinctive feature of such processes is that the long-term aggregate return…

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…

Predicting fund performance is beneficial to both investors and fund managers, and yet is a challenging task. In this paper, we have tested whether deep learning models can predict fund performance more accurately than traditional…

It is a difficult task for both professional investors and individual traders continuously making profit in stock market. With the development of computer science and deep reinforcement learning, Buy\&Hold (B\&H) has been oversteped by many…

GARCH-type time series (characterized by Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) exhibit pronounced volatility, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. To address these challenges and enhance predictive accuracy, this…

This paper explores the application of Machine Learning techniques for pricing high-dimensional options within the framework of the Uncertain Volatility Model (UVM). The UVM is a robust framework that accounts for the inherent…

For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and…

The Heston stochastic volatility model is a widely used tool in financial mathematics for pricing European options. However, its calibration remains computationally intensive and sensitive to local minima due to the model's nonlinear…

We propose a neural network-based approach to calibrating stochastic volatility models, which combines the pioneering grid approach by Horvath et al. (2021) with the pointwise two-stage calibration of Bayer et al. (2018) and Liu et al.…

This paper evaluates the performance of classical time series models in forecasting Bitcoin prices, focusing on ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH. Daily price data from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed, with models trained on the first 90 percent…

Stock price movement prediction is commonly accepted as a very challenging task due to the volatile nature of financial markets. Previous works typically predict the stock price mainly based on its own information, neglecting the cross…

This paper presents a novel approach to credit risk prediction by employing Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNNs) to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers. Leveraging the power of big data and artificial intelligence, the proposed…

Incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations into systematic investments has drawn numerous attention recently. In this paper, we focus on the ESG events in financial news flow and exploring the predictive power…

In today's era of big data, deep learning and artificial intelligence have formed the backbone for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization. Researchers have investigated various state of the art machine learning models to predict Bitcoin…

During the last decades there has been increasing interest in modeling the volatility of financial data. Several parametric models have been proposed to this aim, starting from ARCH, GARCH and their variants, but often it is hard to…

This project introduces the GNAR-HARX model, which combines Generalised Network Autoregressive (GNAR) structure with Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) dynamics and exogenous predictors such as implied volatility. The model is designed for…

Range-measured return contains more information than the traditional scalar-valued return. In this paper, we propose to model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and suggest an interval-valued GARCH (Int-GARCH) model for the…

The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the two-sided Weibull distribution, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. Further, the realized range, as a competitor for realized…

A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…

In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH…