Related papers: Efficient Interpretable Nonlinear Modeling for Mul…

A method for nonlinear topology identification is proposed, based on the assumption that a collection of time series are generated in two steps: i) a vector autoregressive process in a latent space, and ii) a nonlinear, component-wise,…

Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…

In data science, vector autoregression (VAR) models are popular in modeling multivariate time series in the environmental sciences and other applications. However, these models are computationally complex with the number of parameters…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a powerful tool in modeling complex time series and has been exploited in many fields. However, fitting high dimensional VAR model poses some unique challenges: On one hand, the dimensionality,…

Time series of individual subjects have become a common data type in psychological research. These data allow one to estimate models of within-subject dynamics, and thereby avoid the notorious problem of making within-subjects inferences…

In contemporary neuroscience, a key area of interest is dynamic effective connectivity, which is crucial for understanding the dynamic interactions and causal relationships between different brain regions. Dynamic effective connectivity can…

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Identifying the topology underlying a set of time series is useful for tasks such as prediction, denoising, and data completion. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model-based topologies capture dependencies among time series and are often…

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models provide a flexible framework for characterizing dynamic dependence in multivariate spatio-temporal systems, but their unrestricted estimation becomes infeasible when multiple variables are…

We propose a recurrent neural network for a "model-free" simulation of a dynamical system with unknown parameters without prior knowledge. The deep learning model aims to jointly learn the nonlinear time marching operator and the effects of…

Multivariate time series have many applications, from healthcare and meteorology to life science. Although deep learning models have shown excellent predictive performance for time series, they have been criticised for being "black-boxes"…

We introduce Temporal Variational Implicit Neural Representations (TV-INRs), a probabilistic framework for modeling irregular multivariate time series that enables efficient individualized imputation and forecasting. By integrating implicit…

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…

Modern time series forecasting methods, such as Transformer and its variants, have shown strong ability in sequential data modeling. To achieve high performance, they usually rely on redundant or unexplainable structures to model complex…

This paper proposes a flexible framework for inferring large-scale time-varying and time-lagged correlation networks from multivariate or high-dimensional non-stationary time series with piecewise smooth trends. Built on a novel and unified…

In the wild, we often encounter collections of sequential data such as electrocardiograms, motion capture, genomes, and natural language, and sequences may be multichannel or symbolic with nonlinear dynamics. We introduce a new method to…

We describe a method to construct directed networks from multivariate time series which has several advantages over the widely accepted methods. This method is based on an information theoretic reduction of linear (auto-regressive) models.…

While inference-time scaling has significantly enhanced generative quality in large language and diffusion models, its application to vector-quantized (VQ) visual autoregressive modeling (VAR) remains unexplored. We introduce VAR-Scaling,…