Related papers: On modeling airborne infection risk
The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold depends on the natural history…
Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
What role do asymptomatically infected individuals play in the transmission dynamics? There are many diseases, such as norovirus and influenza, where some infected hosts show symptoms of the disease while others are asymptomatically…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
The risks of disease transmission due to these droplets are significantly high in confined public spaces like elevators. A numerical analysis using OpenFOAM has been performed in this work to investigate the droplet dispersion routes in an…
Incorporating dynamic contact networks and delayed awareness into a contagion model with memory, we study the spreading patterns of infectious diseases in connected populations. It is found that the spread of an infectious disease is not…
Estimating risk factors for incidence of a disease is crucial for understanding its etiology. For diseases caused by enteric pathogens, off-the-shelf statistical model-based approaches do not consider the biological mechanisms through which…
The rapid emergence and the disastrous impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic on public health, societies, and economies around the world has created an urgent need for understanding the pathways…
High-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES) is exploited to study indoor air turbulence and its effect on the dispersion of respiratory virus-laden aerosols and subsequent transmission risks. The methodology is applied to assess two…
Motivated by analogies between the spreading of human-to-human infections and of chemical processes, we develop a comprehensive model that accounts both for infection and for transport. In this analogy, the three different populations of…
Laboratory models are often used to understand the interaction of related pathogens via host immunity. For example, recent experiments where ferrets were exposed to two influenza strains within a short period of time have shown how the…
A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…
The emergence of novel infectious agents presents challenges to statistical models of disease transmission. These challenges arise from limited, poor-quality data and an incomplete understanding of the agent. Moreover, outbreaks manifest…
This research investigates the coupled dynamics of behavior and infectious disease using a mathematical model. We integrate a two-state q-voter opinion process with SIS-type infection dynamics, where transmission rates are influenced by the…
An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
In temperate climates, infection rates of enveloped viruses peak during the winter. While these seasonal trends are established in influenza and human coronaviruses, the mechanisms driving the variation remain poorly understood and thus…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…