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The issue of combining individual $p$-values to aggregate multiple small effects is prevalent in many scientific investigations and is a long-standing statistical topic. Many classical methods are designed for combining independent and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-08 Yusi Fang , George C. Tseng , Chung Chang

Different questions related with analysis of extreme values and outliers arise frequently in practice. To exclude extremal observations and outliers is not a good decision because they contain important information about the observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-17 Pavlina K. Jordanova , Monika P. Petkova

By introducing a weight function into the density power divergence, we develop a new class of robust and smooth estimators for the tail index of Pareto-type distributions, offering improved efficiency in the presence of outliers. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-25 Saida Mancer , Abdelhakim Necir , Djamel Meraghni

We propose an extension of the regular Cox's proportional hazards model which allows the estimation of the probabilities of rare events. It is known that when the data are heavily censored at the upper end of the survival distribution, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-23 Ion Grama , Kevin Jaunatre

In this article we show the relationship between the Pareto distribution and the gamma distribution. This shows that the second one, appropriately extended, explains some anomalies that arise in the practical use of extreme value theory.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-02 Joan del castillo , Jalila Daoudi , Isabel Serra

Motivated by the empirical observation of power-law distributions in the credits (e.g., ``likes'') of viral posts in social media, we introduce a high-dimensional tail index regression model and propose methods for estimation and inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-19 Yuya Sasaki , Jing Tao , Yulong Wang

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Chen Zhou

In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The assessment of risks should be carried out in accordance with the regulatory authority's requirement at high quantiles. In general, the underlying distribution function is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-15 Ingo Hoffmann , Christoph J. Börner

A tail empirical process for heavy-tailed and right-censored data is introduced and its Gaussian approximation is established. In this context, a (weighted) new Hill-type estimator for positive extreme value index is proposed and its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-06 Brahim Brahimi , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir , Louiza Soltane

We propose a robust estimator for the tail index of Pareto-type distributions under random right-censoring, constructed within the minimum density power divergence (MDPD) framework and based on the Nelson--Aalen estimator of the cumulative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Nour Elhouda Guesmia , Abdelhakim Necir , Djamel Meraghni

In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behavior is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may for instance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-29 Jose Carlos Araujo Acuna , Hansjoerg Albrecher , Jan Beirlant

This paper introduces a class of copula models for spatial data, based on multivariate Pareto-mixture distributions. We explore the tail properties of these models, demonstrating their ability to capture both tail dependence and asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-28 Pavel Krupskii

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit

Over the last few decades power law distributions have been suggested as forming generative mechanisms in a variety of disparate fields, such as, astrophysics, criminology and database curation. However, fitting these heavy tailed…

Computation · Statistics 2014-08-26 Colin S. Gillespie

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the tail index of distributions with heavy, Pareto-type tails for dependent data, that is of interest in the areas of finance, insurance, environmental monitoring and teletraffic analysis. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-05-25 Stilian A Stoev , George Michailidis

Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-26 Pamela M. Chiroque-Solano , Fernando A. S. Moura

Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-07 Pasquale Cirillo , Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Heavy-tailed distributions are infamously difficult to estimate because their moments tend to infinity as the shape of the tail decay increases. Nevertheless, this study shows the utilization of a modified group of moments for estimating a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-31 Amenah AL-Najafi , Ugur Tirnakli , Kenric P. Nelson

A large consensus now seems to take for granted that the distributions of empirical returns of financial time series are regularly varying, with a tail exponent close to 3. We revisit this results and use standard tests as well as develop a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , V. F. Pisarenko , D. Sornette

We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Chen Zhou