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We present a robust generalization of the synthetic control method for comparative case studies. Like the classical method, we present an algorithm to estimate the unobservable counterfactual of a treatment unit. A distinguishing feature of…

Econometrics · Economics 2017-11-21 Muhammad Jehangir Amjad , Devavrat Shah , Dennis Shen

Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental problem in the analysis and interpretation of synthetic control (SC) methods. We develop conditional prediction intervals in the SC framework, and provide conditions under which these intervals…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Matias D. Cattaneo , Yingjie Feng , Rocio Titiunik

In a seminal paper Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller [2010] (ADH), see also Abadie and Gardeazabal [2003], Abadie et al. [2014], develop the synthetic control procedure for estimating the effect of a treatment, in the presence of a single…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-21 Nikolay Doudchenko , Guido W. Imbens

The synthetic control method (SCM) is a popular approach for estimating the impact of a treatment on a single unit with panel data. Two challenges arise with higher frequency data (e.g., monthly versus yearly): (1) achieving excellent…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-16 Liyang Sun , Eli Ben-Michael , Avi Feller

Synthetic control is a causal inference tool used to estimate the treatment effects of an intervention by creating synthetic counterfactual data. This approach combines measurements from other similar observations (i.e., donor pool ) to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-27 Saeyoung Rho , Rachel Cummings , Vishal Misra

To infer the treatment effect for a single treated unit using panel data, synthetic control methods construct a linear combination of control units' outcomes that mimics the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome trajectory. This linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Hongxiang Qiu , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Edgar Dobriban , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Investigators are increasingly using novel methods for extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a trial to a target population. In many generalizability and transportability analyses, the trial and the observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-20 Yu-Han Chiu , Issa J. Dahabreh

In this paper, we focus on estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of a target population when individual-level data from a source population and summary-level data (e.g., first or second moments of certain covariates) from the target…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Rui Chen , Guanhua Chen , Menggang Yu

Causal inference is essential for developing and evaluating medical interventions, yet real-world medical datasets are often difficult to access due to regulatory barriers. This makes synthetic data a potentially valuable asset that enables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Harry Amad , Zhaozhi Qian , Dennis Frauen , Julianna Piskorz , Stefan Feuerriegel , Mihaela van der Schaar

Population synthesis is a critical task that involves generating synthetic yet realistic representations of populations. It is a fundamental problem in agent-based modeling (ABM), which has become the standard to analyze intelligent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Min Tang , Peng Lu , Qing Feng

Synthetic control methods are widely used to estimate the treatment effect on a single treated unit in time-series settings. A common approach to estimate synthetic control weights is to regress the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-06 Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

We show how entropy balancing can be used for transporting experimental treatment effects from a trial population onto a target population. This method is doubly-robust in the sense that if either the outcome model or the probability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-08 Kevin P. Josey , Seth A. Berkowitz , Debashis Ghosh , Sridharan Raghavan

Generalizing treatment effects from a randomized trial to a target population requires the assumption that potential outcome distributions are invariant across populations after conditioning on observed covariates. This assumption fails…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Amir Asiaee , Samhita Pal , Cole Beck , Jared D. Huling

In this work, we provide a recipe for training machine translation models in a limited resource setting by leveraging synthetic target data generated using a large pre-trained model. We show that consistently across different benchmarks in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-11 Sarthak Mittal , Oleksii Hrinchuk , Oleksii Kuchaiev

Synthetic Control Methods (SCMs) have become a fundamental tool for comparative case studies. The core idea behind SCMs is to estimate treatment effects by predicting counterfactual outcomes for a treated unit using a weighted combination…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-10 Masahiro Kato , Akari Ohda

The synthetic control method estimates the causal effect by comparing the treated unit's outcomes to a weighted average of control units that closely match its pre-treatment outcomes, assuming the relationship between treated and control…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-07 Taehyeon Koo , Zijian Guo

Estimating weights in the synthetic control method, typically resulting in sparse weights where only a few control units have non-zero weights, involves an optimization procedure that selects and combines control units to closely match the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-03 Rong J. B. Zhu

This paper presents an automatic formal controller synthesis method for nonlinear sampled-data systems with safety and reachability specifications. Fundamentally, the presented method is not restricted to polynomial systems and controllers.…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-12-07 Cees F. Verdier , Manuel Mazo

Synthetic Control methods have recently gained considerable attention in applications with only one treated unit. Their popularity is partly based on the key insight that we can predict good synthetic counterfactuals for our treated unit.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-15 Tzvetan Moev

We take steps towards causally interpretable meta-analysis by describing methods for transporting causal inferences from a collection of randomized trials to a new target population, one-trial-at-a-time and pooling all trials. We discuss…