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The marvel of markets lies in the fact that dispersed information is instantaneously processed and used to adjust the price of goods, services and assets. Financial markets are particularly efficient when it comes to processing information;…
We give a new predictive mathematical model for macroeconomics, which deals specifically with asset prices and earnings fluctuations, in the presence of a dynamic economy involving mergers, acquisitions, and hostile takeovers. Consider a…
In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective…
Stochastic feedback systems give rise to a variety of notions of stability. The conditions for the stability of the median, mean, and variance stability conditions differ. These conditions can be stated explicitly for scalar discrete-time…
Cascades of events and extreme occurrences have garnered significant attention across diverse domains such as financial markets, seismology, and social physics. Such events can stem either from the internal dynamics inherent to the system…
We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary…
We revisit the problem of predicting directional movements of stock prices based on news articles: here our algorithm uses daily articles from The Wall Street Journal to predict the closing stock prices on the same day. We propose a unified…
The Epps effect, the decrease of correlations between stock returns for short time windows, was traced back to the trading asynchronicity and to the occasional lead-lag relation between the prices. We study pairs of stocks where the latter…
Synchronising a database of stock specific news with 5 years worth of order book data on 300 stocks, we show that abnormal price movements following news releases (exogenous) exhibit markedly different dynamical features from those arising…
Stock price movement prediction is a challenging and essential problem in finance. While it is well established in modern behavioral finance that the share prices of related stocks often move after the release of news via reactions and…
Standard methods and theories in finance can be ill-equipped to capture highly non-linear interactions in financial prediction problems based on large-scale datasets, with deep learning offering a way to gain insights into correlations in…
We study the synchronization of chaotic units connected through time-delayed fluctuating interactions. We focus on small-world networks of Bernoulli and Logistic units with a fixed chiral backbone. Comparing the synchronization properties…
Random perturbations applied in tandem to an ensemble of oscillating objects can synchronize their motion. We study multiple copies of an arbitrary dynamical system in a stable limit cycle, described via a standard phase reduction picture.…
Synchronized bursts (SBs) with complex structures are common in neuronal cultures. Although the origin of SBs is still unclear, they have been studied for their information processing capabilities. Here, we investigate the properties of…
This paper examines how regulatory interventions in high-frequency financial markets affect price discovery. We focus on Breaking news, where dynamic circuit breakers trigger trading halts immediately after the release of macroeconomic…
Trading frictions are stochastic. They are, moreover, in many instances fast-mean reverting. Here, we study how to optimally trade in a market with stochastic price impact and study approximations to the resulting optimal control problem…
The dynamics of a stock market with heterogeneous agents is discussed in the framework of a recently proposed spin model for the emergence of bubbles and crashes. We relate the log returns of stock prices to magnetization in the model and…
We study the interaction between returns and order flow imbalances in the S&P 500 E-mini futures market using a structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity. The model is estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute…
Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to…
This paper captures irregularities in financial time series data, particularly stock prices, in the presence of COVID-19 shock. We conjectured that jumps and irregularities are embedded in stock data due to the pandemic shock, which brings…