English
Related papers

Related papers: Deep Out-of-Distribution Uncertainty Quantificatio…

200 papers

Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-05 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification in high dimensional regression and classification for which deep ensemble have proven to be promising methods. Recent observations have shown that deep ensemble often return…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Antoine de Mathelin , Francois Deheeger , Mathilde Mougeot , Nicolas Vayatis

Modern neural networks are very powerful predictive models, but they are often incapable of recognizing when their predictions may be wrong. Closely related to this is the task of out-of-distribution detection, where a network must…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Terrance DeVries , Graham W. Taylor

The inaccuracy of neural network models on inputs that do not stem from the training data distribution is both problematic and at times unrecognized. Model uncertainty estimation can address this issue, where uncertainty estimates are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-14 Siddhartha Jain , Ge Liu , Jonas Mueller , David Gifford

Reliable quantification of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty is of crucial importance in applications where models are trained in one environment but applied to multiple different environments, often seen in real-world applications for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Simon Dirmeier , Ye Hong , Yanan Xin , Fernando Perez-Cruz

The principle of maximum entropy is a broadly applicable technique for computing a distribution with the least amount of information possible constrained to match empirical data, for instance, feature expectations. We seek to generalize…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-30 Kenneth Bogert

We introduce a new, efficient, principled and backpropagation-compatible algorithm for learning a probability distribution on the weights of a neural network, called Bayes by Backprop. It regularises the weights by minimising a compression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-22 Charles Blundell , Julien Cornebise , Koray Kavukcuoglu , Daan Wierstra

Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) offer flexible, non-autoregressive generation, but this freedom introduces a challenge: final output quality is highly sensitive to the decoding order. We are the first to formalize this issue, attributing the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Ziyu Chen , Xinbei Jiang , Peng Sun , Tao Lin

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles represent two modern paradigms of uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Yet these approaches struggle to scale mainly due to memory inefficiency issues, since they require parameter storage…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Hippolyt Ritter , Martin Kukla , Cheng Zhang , Yingzhen Li

This paper concerns the study of optimal (supremum and infimum) uncertainty bounds for systems where the input (or prior) probability measure is only partially/imperfectly known (e.g., with only statistical moments and/or on a coarse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Xingsheng Sun , Burigede Liu

Deep neural networks have become the default choice for many of the machine learning tasks such as classification and regression. Dropout, a method commonly used to improve the convergence of deep neural networks, generates an ensemble of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-11 Tal Kachman , Michal Moshkovitz , Michal Rosen-Zvi

We explore the utility of information contained within a dropout based Bayesian neural network (BNN) for the task of detecting out of distribution (OOD) data. We first show how previous attempts to leverage the randomized embeddings induced…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-21 Andre T. Nguyen , Fred Lu , Gary Lopez Munoz , Edward Raff , Charles Nicholas , James Holt

Density-based Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has recently been shown unreliable for the task of detecting OOD images. Various density ratio based approaches achieve good empirical performance, however methods typically lack a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-09 Mingtian Zhang , Andi Zhang , Tim Z. Xiao , Yitong Sun , Steven McDonagh

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and materials properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-05-10 Albert Zhu , Simon Batzner , Albert Musaelian , Boris Kozinsky

Deep neural network, despite its remarkable capability of discriminating targeted in-distribution samples, shows poor performance on detecting anomalous out-of-distribution data. To address this defect, state-of-the-art solutions choose to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-30 Boxi Wu , Jie Jiang , Haidong Ren , Zifan Du , Wenxiao Wang , Zhifeng Li , Deng Cai , Xiaofei He , Binbin Lin , Wei Liu

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often exhibit overconfidence when encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) samples, posing significant challenges for deployment. Since DNNs are trained on in-distribution (ID) datasets, the information flow of ID…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Guide Yang , Chao Hou , Weilong Peng , Xiang Fang , Yongwei Nie , Peican Zhu , Keke Tang

Deep learning (DL) has shown great potential in medical image enhancement problems, such as super-resolution or image synthesis. However, to date, little consideration has been given to uncertainty quantification over the output image. Here…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning is a challenging open problem. Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainties; however, approximate posteriors for modern neural networks still…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-23 Nicolas Brosse , Carlos Riquelme , Alice Martin , Sylvain Gelly , Éric Moulines