Related papers: Measuring risk contagion in financial networks wit…
Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting…
Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…
This paper introduces a novel framework to study default dependence and systemic risk in a financial network that evolves over time. We analyse several indicators of risk, and develop a new latent space model to assess the health of key…
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…
We develop an extreme value framework for CoVaR centered on $v(q \mid p ; C)$, the copula-adjusted probability level, or equivalently, the CoVaR on the uniform (0,1) scale. We characterize the possible tail regimes of $v(q \mid p ; C)$…
Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping…
Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…
Risk contagion concerns any entity dealing with large scale risks. Suppose (X,Y) denotes a risk vector pertaining to two components in some system. A relevant measurement of risk contagion would be to quantify the amount of influence of…
CoVaR (conditional value-at-risk) is a crucial measure for assessing financial systemic risk, which is defined as a conditional quantile of a random variable, conditioned on other random variables reaching specific quantiles. It enables the…
This paper shows that the CoVaR,$\Delta$-CoVaR,CoES,$\Delta$-CoES and MES systemic risk measures can be represented in terms of the univariate risk measure evaluated at a quantile determined by the copula. The result is applied to derive…
The recent financial crisis have generated renewed interests in fragilities of global financial networks among economists and regulatory authorities. In particular, a potential vulnerability of the financial networks is the "financial…
Threats on the stability of a financial system may severely affect the functioning of the entire economy, and thus considerable emphasis is placed on the analyzing the cause and effect of such threats. The financial crisis in the current…
This paper develops a continuous functional framework for analyzing contagion dynamics in financial networks, extending the Navier-Stokes-based approach to network-structured spatial processes. We model financial distress propagation as a…
The failure of key financial institutions may accelerate risk contagion due to their interconnections within the system. In this paper, we propose a robust portfolio strategy to mitigate systemic risks during extreme events. We use the…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…
We propose a dynamic model of dependence structure between financial institutions within a financial system and we construct measures for dependence and financial instability. Employing Markov structures of joint credit migrations, our…
Propagation of balance-sheet or cash-flow insolvency across financial institutions may be modeled as a cascade process on a network representing their mutual exposures. We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude of contagion in…
As global financial markets become increasingly interconnected, financial contagion has developed into a major influencer of asset price dynamics. Motivated by this context, our study explores financial contagion both within and between…
In this paper, we investigate risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and the conditional tail expectation (CTE) of the extreme (maximum and minimum) and the aggregate (total) of two dependent risks. In finance, insurance and the other…
In this paper we estimate the conditional value-at-risk by fitting different multivariate parametric models capturing some stylized facts about multivariate financial time series of equity returns: heavy tails, negative skew, asymmetric…