Related papers: A statistical physics and dynamical systems perspe…

A thermodynamic device placed outdoors, or a local ecosystem, is subject to a variety of different temperatures given by short-tem (daily) and long-term (seasonal) variations. In the long term a superstatistical description makes sense,…

Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our understanding of climate variability and climate change and for…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…

Many dynamical systems exhibit unexpected large amplitude excursions in the chronological progression of a state variable. In the present work, we consider the dynamics associated with the one-dimensional Higgs oscillator which is realized…

Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…

Polycrystalline metal failure often begins with stress concentration at grain boundaries. Identifying which microstructural features trigger these events is important but challenging because these extreme damage events are rare and the…

Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system.…

The risk of occurrence of atypical phenomena is a cross-cutting concern in several areas, such as engineering, climatology, finance, actuarial, among others. Extreme value theory is the natural tool to approach this theme. Many of these…

There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…

We study rare events in systems of diffusive fields driven out of equilibrium by the boundaries. We present a numerical technique and use it to calculate the probabilities of rare events in one and two dimensions. Using this technique, we…

Hazard event sets, a collection of synthetic extreme events over a given period, are important for catastrophe modelling. This paper addresses the issue of generating event sets of extreme river flow for northern England and southern…

This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets…

Data analysis is a powerful tool in all experimental sciences. Statistical methods, such as sampling theory, computer technologies necessary for handling large amounts of data, skill in analysing information contained in different types of…

Extreme values geostatistics make it possible to model the asymptotic behaviors of random phenomena which depends on space or time parameters. In this paper, we propose new models of the extremal coefficient within a spatial stationary…

Within the continuous endeavour of improving the efficiency and resilience of air transport, the trend of using concepts and metrics from statistical physics has recently gained momentum. This scientific discipline, which integrates…

Tropical cyclones are among the most consequential weather hazards, yet estimates of their risk are limited by the relatively short historical record. To extend these records, researchers often generate large ensembles of synthetic storms…

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…

Tropical cyclones are important drivers of coastal flooding which have severe negative public safety and economic consequences. Due to the rare occurrence of such events, high spatial and temporal resolution historical storm precipitation…

Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…

Environmental science almost invariably proposes problems of extreme complexity, typically characterized by strongly nonlinear evolution dynamics. The systems under investigation have many degrees of freedom - which makes them complicated -…