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Most causal inference methods focus on estimating marginal average treatment effects, but many important causal estimands depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, including the probability of causation and proportions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 Zach Shahn , David Madigan

We present a randomization-based inferential framework for experiments characterized by a strongly ignorable assignment mechanism where units have independent probabilities of receiving treatment. Previous works on randomization tests often…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-01 Zach Branson , Marie-Abele Bind

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Niloofar Moosavi , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

Feature selection is an important but challenging task in causal inference for obtaining unbiased estimates of causal quantities. Properly selected features in causal inference not only significantly reduce the time required to implement a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Tianyu Yang , Md. Noor-E-Alam

Over the past two decades, considerable strides have been made in advancing neuroscientific techniques, yet challenges remain in attributing causality to observed associations. This review addresses a fundamental issue in observational…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-04 Eric W. Bridgeford , Brian S. Caffo , Maya B. Mathur , Russell A. Poldrack

Mendelian randomization (MR) is widely used to uncover causal relationships in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, most existing MR methods presuppose linear causality, risking bias when the true relationships are nonlinear,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Xinpei Wang , Tao Huang , Jinzhu Jia

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

Instrumental variables regression is a tool that is commonly used in the analysis of observational data. The instrumental variables are used to make causal inference about the effect of a certain exposure in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-07 Valentin Vancak , Arvid Sjölander

We present a method for assessing the sensitivity of the true causal effect to unmeasured confounding. The method requires the analyst to set two intuitive parameters. Otherwise, the method is assumption-free. The method returns an interval…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-07 Jose M. Peña

Clustered observations are ubiquitous in controlled and observational studies and arise naturally in multi-centre trials or longitudinal surveys. We present a novel model for the analysis of clustered observations where the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-03 Luisa Barbanti , Torsten Hothorn

Externally controlled trials are crucial in clinical development when randomized controlled trials are unethical or impractical. These trials consist of a full treatment arm with the experimental treatment and a full external control arm.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Chenyin Gao , Xiang Zhang , Shu Yang

We propose a novel sensitivity analysis framework for linear estimators with identification failures that can be viewed as seeing the wrong outcome distribution. Our approach measures the degree of identification failure through the change…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-30 Jacob Dorn , Luther Yap

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Instrumental variable methods are widely used for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders. Existing instrumental variable methods for nonlinear outcome models require stringent identifiability conditions. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-01 Sai Li , Zijian Guo

Prior to clinical applications, it is critical that risk prediction models are evaluated in independent studies that did not contribute to model development. While prospective cohort studies provide a natural setting for model validation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-13 Parichoy Pal Choudhury , Anil K. Chaturvedi , Nilanjan Chatterjee

Modern medical research demands specialized causal inference methods evaluating complex continuous-time dynamic treatment regimens using observational data. For instance, obtaining the causal effects of intravenous administration, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Haiyan Zhu , Yingchun Zhou

A standard assumption for causal inference from observational data is that one has measured a sufficiently rich set of covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values. Skepticism…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-24 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen , Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Xu Shi , Wang Miao

Estimating an individual treatment effect (ITE) is essential to personalized decision making. However, existing methods for estimating the ITE often rely on unconfoundedness, an assumption that is fundamentally untestable with observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Mingzhang Yin , Claudia Shi , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

A key objective of decomposition analysis is to identify a factor (the 'mediator') contributing to disparities in an outcome between social groups. In decomposition analysis, a scholarly interest often centers on estimating how much the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-27 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee , Shujie Ma

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya