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The aim of this work is to explore the possible types of phenomena that simple macroeconomic Agent-Based models (ABM) can reproduce. We propose a methodology, inspired by statistical physics, that characterizes a model through its 'phase…
In this paper we consider the machine learning (ML) task of predicting tipping point transitions and long-term post-tipping-point behavior associated with the time evolution of an unknown (or partially unknown), non-stationary, potentially…
Systematic exploration of Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is challenged by the curse of dimensionality and their inherent stochasticity. We present a multi-stage pipeline integrating the systematic design of experiments with machine learning…
Agent-Based Models (ABM) are computational scenario-generators, which can be used to predict the possible future outcomes of the complex system they represent. To better understand the robustness of these predictions, it is necessary to…
Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a well-established paradigm for simulating complex systems via interactions between constituent entities. Machine learning (ML) refers to approaches whereby statistical algorithms 'learn' from data on their…
Agent-based models are a natural choice for modeling complex social systems. In such models simple stochastic interaction rules for a large population of individuals can lead to emergent dynamics on the macroscopic scale, for instance a…
We propose a novel approach to the statistical analysis of stochastic simulation models and, especially, agent-based models (ABMs). Our main goal is to provide fully automated, model-independent and tool-supported techniques and algorithms…
Taking agent-based models (ABM) closer to the data is an open challenge. This paper explicitly tackles parameter space exploration and calibration of ABMs combining supervised machine-learning and intelligent sampling to build a surrogate…
An increasing number of emerging applications, e.g., internet of things, vehicular communications, augmented reality, and the growing complexity due to the interoperability requirements of these systems, lead to the need to change the tools…
Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are powerful tools for studying emergent properties in complex systems. In ABMs, agent behaviors are governed by local interactions and stochastic rules. However, these rules are, in general, non-differentiable,…
In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…
Deriving closed-form, analytical expressions for reduced-order models, and judiciously choosing the closures leading to them, has long been the strategy of choice for studying phase- and noise-induced transitions for agent-based models…
Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…
Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool for modeling spatio-temporal population dynamics, where many details can be included in the model description. Their computational cost though is very high and for stochastic ABMs a lot of…
We explored the challenge of predicting and explaining the occurrence of events within sequences of data points. Our focus was particularly on scenarios in which unknown triggers causing the occurrence of events may consist of…
We present an Equation/Variable free machine learning (EVFML) framework for the control of the collective dynamics of complex/multiscale systems modelled via microscopic/agent-based simulators. The approach obviates the need for…
Influenced mixed moving average fields are a versatile modeling class for spatio-temporal data. However, their predictive distribution is not generally known. Under this modeling assumption, we define a novel spatio-temporal embedding and a…
Estimation and inference on causal parameters is typically reduced to a generalized method of moments problem, which involves auxiliary functions that correspond to solutions to a regression or classification problem. Recent line of work on…
Individual events at high-energy colliders like the LHC can be represented by a sequence of measurements, or 'point patterns' in an observable space. Starting from this data representation, we build a simple Bayesian probabilistic model for…
Data subsampling has become widely recognized as a tool to overcome computational and economic bottlenecks in analyzing massive datasets. We contribute to the development of adaptive design for estimation of finite population…