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Predicting the occurrence of transitions in the qualitative dynamics of many natural systems is crucial, yet it remains a challenging task. Generic early warning signals like variance and lag-1 autocorrelation identify critical slowing down…
The climate impact of ocean gateway openings during the Eocene-Oligocene transition is still under debate. Previous model studies employed grid resolutions at which the impact of mesoscale eddies has to be parameterized. We present results…
This study presents a statistical time-domain approach for identifying transitions between climate states, referred to as breakpoints, using well-established econometric tools. We analyze a 67.1 million year record of the oxygen isotope…
The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering…
While one can unequivocally identify past climate transitions, we lack comprehensive knowledge about their underlying mechanisms and timescales. Our study employs a dimensional analysis of benthic stable isotope records to uncover, across…
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be…
From the Archean toward the Proterozoic, the Earth's atmosphere underwent a major shift from anoxic to oxic conditions, around 2.4 to 2.1 Gyr, known as the Great Oxidation Event (GOE). This rapid transition may be related to an atmospheric…
The instability with respect to global glaciation is a fundamental property of the climate system caused by the positive ice-albedo feedback. The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at which this Snowball bifurcation occurs changes…
The glaciological record of atmospheric composition suggests O2 has declined over the last 800000 years at an average rate of 0.3 x 1012 mol (Tmol) O2 yr-1. Because the geological carbon cycle regulates long term atmospheric oxygen…
We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…
The Eocene--Oligocene transition (EOT) represents a period of global environmental changes particularly marked in Europe and coincides with a dramatic biotic turnover. Here, using an exceptional fossil preservation, we document and analyse…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
In this paper we analyse a dynamical system based on the so-called KCG (K\"all\'en, Crafoord, Ghil) conceptual climate model. This model describes an evolution of the globally averaged temperature and the average extent of the ice sheets.…
The Great Oxidation Event (GOE) was a $200$ Myr transition circa 2.4 billion years ago that converted the Earth's anoxic atmosphere to one where molecular oxygen (O$_2$) was abundant (volume mixing ratio $>10^{-4}$). This significant rise…
Ozone depletion events are recurring phenomena in both polar regions, characterized by significant interannual variability. In this study, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Global Deterministic Prediction System is used to…
It is tested whether past abrupt climate changes support the validity of statistical early-warning signals (EWS) as predictor of future climate tipping points. EWS are expected increases in amplitude and correlation of fluctuations driven…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…
The Milankovitch theory states that the orbital eccentricity, precession, and obliquity of the Earth influence our climate by modulating the summer insolation at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. Despite considerable success of…
In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…