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We consider causal models with two observed variables and one latent variables, each variable being discrete, with the goal of characterizing the possible distributions on outcomes that can result from controlling one of the observed…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-05 Kevin Shu

A graphical model is a statistical model that is associated to a graph whose nodes correspond to variables of interest. The edges of the graph reflect allowed conditional dependencies among the variables. Graphical models admit…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-09 Mathias Drton , Marloes H. Maathuis

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Yuxuan Wang , Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Wei Wang , Yizhou Wang

Gaussian Graphical Models (GGM) are often used to describe the conditional correlations between the components of a random vector. In this article, we compare two families of GGM inference methods: nodewise edge selection and penalised…

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

Network structure optimization is a fundamental task in complex network analysis. However, almost all the research on Bayesian optimization is aimed at optimizing the objective functions with vectorial inputs. In this work, we first present…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-07 Jiaxu Cui , Bo Yang

The assumption of independence between observations (units) in a dataset is prevalent across various methodologies for learning causal graphical models. However, this assumption often finds itself in conflict with real-world data, posing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

We introduce a unified framework for contextual and causal Bayesian optimisation, which aims to design intervention policies maximising the expectation of a target variable. Our approach leverages both observed contextual information and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Vahan Arsenyan , Antoine Grosnit , Haitham Bou-Ammar , Arnak Dalalyan

We describe algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from a combination of user knowledge and statistical data. The algorithms have two components: a scoring metric and a search procedure. The scoring metric takes a network structure,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-29 Dan Geiger , David Heckerman

Multivariate functional data arise in a wide range of applications. One fundamental task is to understand the causal relationships among these functional objects of interest, which has not yet been fully explored. In this article, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-25 Fangting Zhou , Kejun He , Kunbo Wang , Yanxun Xu , Yang Ni

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Ricardo Silva , Zoubin Ghahramani

We introduce efficient MCMC algorithms for Bayesian inference for single-factor models with correlated residuals where the residuals' distribution is a Gaussian graphical model. We call this family of models single-factor graphical models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 David Marcano , Adrian Dobra

We address the challenge of inferring causal effects in social network data. This results in challenges due to interference -- where a unit's outcome is affected by neighbors' treatments -- and network-induced confounding factors. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Seyedeh Baharan Khatami , Harsh Parikh , Haowei Chen , Sudeepa Roy , Babak Salimi

The exploration of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for processing graph-structured data has expanded, particularly their potential for causal analysis due to their universal approximation capabilities. Anticipated to significantly enhance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Simi Job , Xiaohui Tao , Taotao Cai , Lin Li , Haoran Xie , Jianming Yong

Traditionally, statistical and causal inference on human subjects rely on the assumption that individuals are independently affected by treatments or exposures. However, recently there has been increasing interest in settings, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-25 Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Ilya Shpitser , Youjin Lee

Bayesian networks (BNs) are a widely used class of probabilistic graphical models employed in numerous application domains. However, inferring the network's graphical structure from data remains challenging. Bayesian structure learners…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 William Zhao , Guy Van den Broeck , Benjie Wang

Methodological development for the inference of gene regulatory networks from transcriptomic data is an active and important research area. Several approaches have been proposed to infer relationships among genes from observational…

Applications · Statistics 2013-06-28 Grégory Nuel , Andrea Rau , Florence Jaffrézic

Causality is important for designing interpretable and robust methods in artificial intelligence research. We propose a local approach to identify whether a variable is a cause of a given target under the framework of causal graphical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Zhuangyan Fang , Yue Liu , Zhi Geng , Shengyu Zhu , Yangbo He

Probabilistic Graphical Bayesian models of causation have continued to impact on strategic analyses designed to help evaluate the efficacy of different interventions on systems. However, the standard causal algebras upon which these…

We consider linear structural equation models with explicitly modelled latent variables. In such models, observed and latent variables solve linear equations including stochastic noise terms. The goal of our work is to identify the direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Tom Hochsprung , Nils Sturma , Jakob Runge , Mathias Drton , Andreas Gerhardus
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