Related papers: Strongly Efficient Rare-Event Simulation for Regul…
We introduce and analyze multilevel Monte Carlo algorithms for the computation of $\mathbb {E}f(Y)$, where $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in[0,1]}$ is the solution of a multidimensional L\'{e}vy-driven stochastic differential equation and $f$ is a real-valued…
We provide a simple algorithm for construction of Brownian paths approximating those of a L\'evy process on a finite time interval. It requires knowledge of the L\'evy process trajectory on a chosen regular grid and the law of its endpoint,…
Finding and sampling rare trajectories in dynamical systems is a difficult computational task underlying numerous problems and applications. In this paper we show how to construct Metropolis- Hastings Monte Carlo methods that can…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…
We explore past and recent developments in rare-event probability estimation with a particular focus on a novel Monte Carlo technique Empirical Likelihood Maximization (ELM). This is a versatile method that involves sampling from a sequence…
We consider a generic class of chance-constrained optimization problems with heavy-tailed (i.e., power-law type) risk factors. In this setting, we use the scenario approach to obtain a constant approximation to the optimal solution with a…
We study the extremal behavior of a stochastic integral driven by a multivariate L\'{e}vy process that is regularly varying with index $\alpha>0$. For predictable integrands with a finite $(\alpha+\delta)$-moment, for some $\delta>0$, we…
We develop a completely new and straightforward method for simulating the joint law of the position and running maximum at a fixed time of a general L\'{e}vy process with a view to application in insurance and financial mathematics.…
An obvious way to simulate a L\'evy process $X$ is to sample its increments over time $1/n$, thus constructing an approximating random walk $X^{(n)}$. This paper considers the error of such approximation after the two-sided reflection map…
We study high-dimensional drift estimation for L\'evy-driven Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes based on discrete observations. Assuming sparsity of the drift matrix, we analyze Lasso and Slope estimators constructed from approximate likelihoods…
This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…
L\'evy walks are continuous time random walks with spatio-temporal coupling of jump lengths and waiting times, often used to model superdiffusive spreading processes such as animals searching for food, tracer motion in weakly chaotic…
We develop rare-event simulation methodology for the analysis of loss events in a many-server loss system under quality-driven regime, focusing on the steady-state loss probability (i.e. fraction of lost customers over arrivals) and the…
In [16], under mild conditions, a Wiener-Hopf type factorization is derived for the exponential functional of proper L\'evy processes. In this paper, we extend this factorization by relaxing a finite moment assumption as well as by…
We develop a novel procedure for estimating the optimizer of general convex stochastic optimization problems of the form $\min_{x\in\mathcal{X}} \mathbb{E}[F(x,\xi)]$, when the given data is a finite independent sample selected according to…
This article analyzes and compares two general techniques of rare event simulation for generating paths of Markov processes over fixed time horizons: exponential tilting and stochastic bridge. These two methods allow to accurately compute…
A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…
The class of Levy processes for which overshoots are almost surely constant quantities is precisely characterized.
L\'evy walks are random walk processes whose step-lengths follow a long-tailed power-law distribution. Due to their abundance as movement patterns of biological organisms, significant theoretical efforts have been devoted to identifying the…
We consider high-frequency sampled continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models driven by finite-variance zero-mean L\'evy processes. An L^2-consistent estimator for the increments of the driving L\'evy process without order…