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How does a cause lead to an effect, and which intermediate causal steps explain their connection? This work scrutinizes the mechanistic causal reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to answer these questions through the task…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Liesbeth Allein , Nataly Pineda-Castañeda , Andrea Rocci , Marie-Francine Moens

Most research about natural language generation (NLG) relies on evaluation benchmarks with limited references for a sample, which may result in poor correlations with human judgements. The underlying reason is that one semantic meaning can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Tianyi Tang , Hongyuan Lu , Yuchen Eleanor Jiang , Haoyang Huang , Dongdong Zhang , Wayne Xin Zhao , Tom Kocmi , Furu Wei

Learning causal relations from observational data is a fundamental problem with wide-ranging applications across many fields. Constraint-based methods infer the underlying causal structure by performing conditional independence tests.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Marc Franquesa Monés , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

Variational mutual information (MI) estimators are widely used in unsupervised representation learning methods such as contrastive predictive coding (CPC). A lower bound on MI can be obtained from a multi-class classification problem, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-04 Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

We extend the theory of d-separation to cases in which data instances are not independent and identically distributed. We show that applying the rules of d-separation directly to the structure of probabilistic models of relational data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-07 Marc Maier , Katerina Marazopoulou , David Jensen

Causal inference using observational data is challenging, especially in the bivariate case. Through the minimum description length principle, we link the postulate of independence between the generating mechanisms of the cause and of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-17 Natasa Tagasovska , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Thibault Vatter

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have recently emerged as a novel framework for language modeling. MDMs generate sentences by iteratively denoising masked sequences, filling in [MASK] tokens step by step. Although MDMs support any-order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Chunsan Hong , Seonho An , Min-Soo Kim , Jong Chul Ye

Sequence-level evaluations in autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) rely on highly dependent token generation. Establishing tight concentration bounds for these processes remains a challenge due to two fundamental bottlenecks in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Pei-Sen Li

Unbiased learning to rank has been proposed to alleviate the biases in the search ranking, making it possible to train ranking models with user interaction data. In real applications, search engines are designed to display only the most…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Haiyuan Zhao , Jun Xu , Xiao Zhang , Guohao Cai , Zhenhua Dong , Ji-Rong Wen

We study the estimation of causal effects on group-level parameters identified from microdata (e.g., child penalties). We demonstrate that standard one-step methods (such as pooled OLS and IV regressions) are generally inconsistent due to…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-13 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Kazuharu Yanagimoto , Tom Zohar

As an essential component of human cognition, cause-effect relations appear frequently in text, and curating cause-effect relations from text helps in building causal networks for predictive tasks. Existing causality extraction techniques…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Jie Yang , Soyeon Caren Han , Josiah Poon

When we plan to use money as an incentive to change the behavior of a person (such as making riders to deliver more orders or making consumers to buy more items), the common approach of this problem is to adopt a two-stage framework in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Juhua Chen , Karson shi , Jialing He , North Chen , Kele Jiang

Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have been widely applied to reasoning tasks. However, they suffer from limited multi-rationale semantic modeling, insufficient logical robustness, and are susceptible to misleading…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Chuang Yu , Jinmiao Zhao , Mingxuan Zhao , Yunpeng Liu , Xiujun Shu , Yuanhao Feng , Bo Wang , Xiangyu Yue

Large language models are often assumed to acquire increasingly structured, generalizable internal representations simply by scaling data and parameters. We interrogate this assumption by introducing a Clinical Trial Natural Language…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Maël Jullien , Marco Valentino , André Freitas

The key to multi-label image classification (MLC) is to improve model performance by leveraging label correlations. Unfortunately, it has been shown that overemphasizing co-occurrence relationships can cause the overfitting issue of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Ming-Kun Xie , Jia-Hao Xiao , Pei Peng , Gang Niu , Masashi Sugiyama , Sheng-Jun Huang

In strategic classification, an institution (e.g., a bank) anticipates adaptation from users who change their features to increase utility in a classification task (e.g., loan repayment). Since a key challenge is the distribution shift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Antonio Gois , Sophia Gunluk , Nir Rosenfeld , Nidhi Hegde , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Dhanya Sridhar

Learning from label proportions (LLP) is a weakly supervised setting for classification in which unlabeled training instances are grouped into bags, and each bag is annotated with the proportion of each class occurring in that bag. Prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-15 Clayton Scott , Jianxin Zhang

Despite their strong performance on reasoning benchmarks, large language models (LLMs) have proven brittle when presented with counterfactual questions, suggesting weaknesses in their causal reasoning ability. While recent work has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Victoria Lin , Xinnuo Xu , Rachel Lawrence , Risa Ueno , Amit Sharma , Javier Gonzalez , Niranjani Prasad

Out-of-distribution generalization is key to building models that remain reliable across diverse environments. Recent causality-based methods address this challenge by learning invariant causal relationships in the underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-24 Théotime Le Goff , Émilie Devijver

The algorithmic Markov condition states that the most likely causal direction between two random variables X and Y can be identified as that direction with the lowest Kolmogorov complexity. Due to the halting problem, however, this notion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-23 Kailash Budhathoki , Jilles Vreeken
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