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We consider the off-policy estimation problem of estimating the expected reward of a target policy using samples collected by a different behavior policy. Importance sampling (IS) has been a key technique to derive (nearly) unbiased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-31 Qiang Liu , Lihong Li , Ziyang Tang , Dengyong Zhou

While on-policy algorithms are known for their stability, they often demand a substantial number of samples. In contrast, off-policy algorithms, which leverage past experiences, are considered sample-efficient but tend to exhibit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Jianfei Ma

Improving the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning algorithms requires effective exploration. Following the principle of $\textit{optimism in the face of uncertainty}$ (OFU), we train a separate exploration policy to maximize the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-23 Jiachen Li , Shuo Cheng , Zhenyu Liao , Huayan Wang , William Yang Wang , Qinxun Bai

Motivated by the many real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL) that require safe-policy iterations, we consider the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) -- the problem of evaluating a new policy using the historical data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-02 Tengyang Xie , Yifei Ma , Yu-Xiang Wang

The policy gradient theorem (Sutton et al., 2000) prescribes the usage of a cumulative discounted state distribution under the target policy to approximate the gradient. Most algorithms based on this theorem, in practice, break this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-08 Samuele Tosatto , Andrew Patterson , Martha White , A. Rupam Mahmood

This paper investigates the problem of online prediction learning, where learning proceeds continuously as the agent interacts with an environment. The predictions made by the agent are contingent on a particular way of behaving,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-08 Sina Ghiassian , Andrew Patterson , Martha White , Richard S. Sutton , Adam White

The off-policy learning paradigm allows for recommender systems and general ranking applications to be framed as decision-making problems, where we aim to learn decision policies that optimize an unbiased offline estimate of an online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-15 Shashank Gupta , Olivier Jeunen , Harrie Oosterhuis , Maarten de Rijke

We consider the off-policy evaluation problem of reinforcement learning using deep convolutional neural networks. We analyze the deep fitted Q-evaluation method for estimating the expected cumulative reward of a target policy, when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-05 Xiang Ji , Minshuo Chen , Mengdi Wang , Tuo Zhao

Off-policy deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are incapable of learning solely from batch offline data without online interactions with the environment, due to the phenomenon known as \textit{extrapolation error}. This is often due…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-03 Riashat Islam , Komal K. Teru , Deepak Sharma , Joelle Pineau

Reinforcement Learning aims at identifying and evaluating efficient control policies from data. In many real-world applications, the learner is not allowed to experiment and cannot gather data in an online manner (this is the case when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Daniele Foffano , Alessio Russo , Alexandre Proutiere

We propose a network architecture capable of reliably estimating uncertainty of regression based predictions without sacrificing accuracy. The current state-of-the-art uncertainty algorithms either fall short of achieving prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Kinjal Patel , Steven Waslander

Effective decision making requires understanding the uncertainty inherent in a prediction. In regression, this uncertainty can be estimated by a variety of methods; however, many of these methods are laborious to tune, generate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-02 Tianhui Zhou , Yitong Li , Yuan Wu , David Carlson

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant interest due to its safe and easily scalable paradigm. However, training under this paradigm presents its own challenge: the extrapolation error stemming from out-of-distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Thanh Nguyen , Tung Luu , Tri Ton , Sungwoong Kim , Chang D. Yoo

We consider the finite-horizon offline reinforcement learning (RL) setting, and are motivated by the challenge of learning the policy at any step h in dynamic programming (DP) algorithms. To learn this, it is sufficient to evaluate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy , Tanmay Gangwani , Sumeet Katariya , Branislav Kveton , Shrey Modi , Anshuka Rangi

Recent years have experienced increasing utilization of complex machine learning models across multiple sources of data to inform more generalizable decision-making. However, distribution shifts across data sources and privacy concerns…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-16 Yi Liu , Alexander W. Levis , Sharon-Lise Normand , Larry Han

In this paper we propose several novel distributed gradient-based temporal difference algorithms for multi-agent off-policy learning of linear approximation of the value function in Markov decision processes with strict information…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-20 Milos S. Stankovic , Marko Beko , Srdjan S. Stankovic

Credit risk scoring must support high-stakes lending decisions where data distributions change over time, probability estimates must be reliable, and group-level fairness is required. While modern machine learning models improve default…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-10 Srikumar Nayak

Off-policy estimation (OPE) methods enable unbiased offline evaluation of recommender systems, directly estimating the online reward some target policy would have obtained, from offline data and with statistical guarantees. The theoretical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-12 Olivier Jeunen

Offline reinforcement learning (offline RL), which aims to find an optimal policy from a previously collected static dataset, bears algorithmic difficulties due to function approximation errors from out-of-distribution (OOD) data points. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Gaon An , Seungyong Moon , Jang-Hyun Kim , Hyun Oh Song

Uncertainty quantification in time series prediction is challenging due to the temporal dependence and distribution shift on sequential data. Conformal inference provides a pivotal and flexible instrument for assessing the uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-09 Junxi Wu , Dongjian Hu , Yajie Bao , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou