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Recently, methods have been proposed that exploit the invariance of prediction models with respect to changing environments to infer subsets of the causal parents of a response variable. If the environments influence only few of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-11 Phillip B. Mogensen , Nikolaj Thams , Jonas Peters

The gold standard for causal model evaluation involves comparing model predictions with true effects estimated from randomized controlled trials (RCT). However, RCTs are not always feasible or ethical to perform. In contrast, conditionally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Chao Ma , Cheng Zhang

Models that learn spurious correlations from training data often fail when deployed in new environments. While many methods aim to learn invariant representations to address this, they often underperform standard empirical risk minimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Ruqi Bai , Yao Ji , Zeyu Zhou , David I. Inouye

Causal inference for observational longitudinal studies often requires the accurate estimation of treatment effects on time-to-event outcomes in the presence of time-dependent patient history and time-dependent covariates. To tackle this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-17 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

Notions of counterfactual invariance (CI) have proven essential for predictors that are fair, robust, and generalizable in the real world. We propose graphical criteria that yield a sufficient condition for a predictor to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Francesco Quinzan , Cecilia Casolo , Krikamol Muandet , Yucen Luo , Niki Kilbertus

Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Nikolaj Thams , Rikke Søndergaard , Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

In recent years, several methods have been proposed for the discovery of causal structure from non-experimental data (Spirtes et al. 2000; Pearl 2000). Such methods make various assumptions on the data generating process to facilitate its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Shohei Shimizu , Aapo Hyvarinen , Yutaka Kano , Patrik O. Hoyer

Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-18 Jonas Peters , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Given data sampled from a number of variables, one is often interested in the underlying causal relationships in the form of a directed acyclic graph. In the general case, without interventions on some of the variables it is only possible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-05 Christopher Nowzohour , Peter Bühlmann

In text classification tasks, models often rely on spurious correlations for predictions, incorrectly associating irrelevant features with the target labels. This issue limits the robustness and generalization of models, especially when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Yuqing Zhou , Ziwei Zhu

This paper proposes a framework that incorporates the two-way fixed effects model as a special case to conduct causal inference with a continuous treatment. Treatments are allowed to change over time and potential outcomes are dependent on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Zhiguo Xiao , Peikai Wu

Individual causal inference (ICI) uses causal inference methods to understand and predict the effects of interventions on individuals, considering their specific characteristics / facts. It aims to estimate individual causal effect (ICE),…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Daniel T. Chang

The widespread availability of complex time series data in various domains such as environmental science, epidemiology, and economics demands robust causal discovery methods that can identify intricate contemporaneous and lagged…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Omar Faruque , Sahara Ali , Xue Zheng , Jianwu Wang

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of observational data from mobile and social networking, online advertising, web mining, healthcare, education, public policy, marketing campaigns, and so on, which facilitates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-06 Zhixuan Chu , Ruopeng Li , Stephen Rathbun , Sheng Li

Variable selection can be performed by testing conditional independence (CI) between each predictor and the response, given the other predictors. A doubly robust and powerful option for these CI tests is the projected covariance measure…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-10 Abhinav Chakraborty , Jeffrey Zhang , Eugene Katsevich

Causal representation learning (CRL) offers the promise of uncovering the underlying causal model by which observed data was generated, but the practical applicability of existing methods remains limited by the strong assumptions required…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Erdun Gao , Biwei Huang , Mingming Gong , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

Learning causal structure from observational data is a fundamental challenge in machine learning. However, the majority of commonly used differentiable causal discovery methods are non-identifiable, turning this problem into a continuous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Yu Wang , An Zhang , Xiang Wang , Yancheng Yuan , Xiangnan He , Tat-Seng Chua

Adaptive experiments use preliminary analyses of the data to inform further course of action and are commonly used in many disciplines including medical and social sciences. Because the null hypothesis and experimental design are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Tobias Freidling , Qingyuan Zhao , Zijun Gao

Distinguishing cause from effect using observations of a pair of random variables is a core problem in causal discovery. Most approaches proposed for this task, namely additive noise models (ANM), are only adequate for quantitative data. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-16 Mário A. T. Figueiredo , Catarina A. Oliveira

Identifying the direct causes or causal parents of a target variable is crucial for scientific discovery. Focusing on linear models, the invariant prediction framework was built upon the invariance principle, namely, the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Kang Du , Yu Xiang , Ilya Soloveychik