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Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets. While popular variants such as CD-split improve CP's efficiency, they often yield prediction sets composed of multiple…

Persistent homology has become an important tool for extracting geometric and topological features from data, whose multi-scale features are summarized in a persistence diagram. From a statistical perspective, however, persistence diagrams…

The high energy physics unfolding problem is an important statistical inverse problem in data analysis at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. The goal of unfolding is to make nonparametric inferences about a particle spectrum from…

It is well-known that classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations. To defend against adversarial perturbations, various certified robustness results have been derived. However, existing certified robustnesses are limited to…

Parameters in climate models are usually calibrated manually, exploiting only small subsets of the available data. This precludes both optimal calibration and quantification of uncertainties. Traditional Bayesian calibration methods that…

We present a novel method for reliably explaining the predictions of neural networks. We consider an explanation reliable if it identifies input features relevant to the model output by considering the input and the neighboring data points.…

Conformal predictive systems allow forecasters to issue predictive distributions for real-valued future outcomes that have out-of-sample calibration guarantees. On a more abstract level, conformal prediction makes use of in-sample…

Kernel Density Estimation is a very popular technique of approximating a density function from samples. The accuracy is generally well-understood and depends, roughly speaking, on the kernel decay and local smoothness of the true density.…

Randomized smoothing has become a leading approach for certifying adversarial robustness in machine learning models. However, a persistent gap remains between theoretical certified robustness and empirical robustness accuracy. This paper…

To evaluate a classification algorithm, it is common practice to plot the ROC curve using test data. However, the inherent randomness in the test data can undermine our confidence in the conclusions drawn from the ROC curve, necessitating…

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…

Neural Controlled Differential Equations (Neural CDEs) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for sequence modeling, yet the roughness of the driving control path often restricts their efficiency. Standard splines introduce…

For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude.…

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Models for image segmentation, node classification and many other tasks map a single input to multiple labels. By perturbing this single shared input (e.g. the image) an adversary can manipulate several predictions (e.g. misclassify several…

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*,…

Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation are two sides of the same coin. A common principle is that fitted or predicted distributions ought to be calibrated or reliable, ideally in the sense of auto-calibration, where the outcome is a…

Image segmentation is a challenging task influenced by multiple sources of uncertainty, such as the data labeling process or the sampling of training data. In this paper we focus on binary segmentation and address these challenges using…

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) is a reliable indicator of online customers' preferences, making it crucial for developing recommender systems. A major challenge in predicting CVR is severe selection bias, arising from users' inherent…

Randomized smoothing has achieved state-of-the-art certified robustness against $l_2$-norm adversarial attacks. However, it is not wholly resolved on how to find the optimal base classifier for randomized smoothing. In this work, we employ…