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Much of scientific data is collected as randomized experiments intervening on some and observing other variables of interest. Quite often, a given phenomenon is investigated in several studies, and different sets of variables are involved…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-19 Antti Hyttinen , Frederick Eberhardt , Patrik O. Hoyer

We study the data-driven selection of causal graphical models using constraint-based algorithms, which determine the existence or non-existence of edges (causal connections) in a graph based on testing a series of conditional independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Daniel Malinsky

In this paper we review important aspects of semiparametric theory and empirical processes that arise in causal inference problems. We begin with a brief introduction to the general problem of causal inference, and go on to discuss…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-25 Edward H. Kennedy

Yield and quality improvement is of paramount importance to any manufacturing company. One of the ways of improving yield is through discovery of the root causal factors affecting yield. We propose the use of data-driven interpretable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-15 Katerina Marazopoulou , Rumi Ghosh , Prasanth Lade , David Jensen

We introduce a novel framework to financial time series forecasting that leverages causality-inspired models to balance the trade-off between invariance to distributional changes and minimization of prediction errors. To the best of our…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-20 Daniel Cunha Oliveira , Yutong Lu , Xi Lin , Mihai Cucuringu , Andre Fujita

This paper discusses the problem of causal query in observational data with hidden variables, with the aim of seeking the change of an outcome when "manipulating" a variable while given a set of plausible confounding variables which affect…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le

Spurred on by recent successes in causal inference competitions, Bayesian nonparametric (and high-dimensional) methods have recently seen increased attention in the causal inference literature. In this paper, we present a comprehensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Antonio R. Linero , Joseph L. Antonelli

Causal discovery studies the problem of mining causal relationships between variables from data, which is of primary interest in science. During the past decades, significant amount of progresses have been made toward this fundamental data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-28 Kui Yu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu

Causal discovery, the task of inferring causal structure from data, has the potential to uncover mechanistic insights from biological experiments, especially those involving perturbations. However, causal discovery algorithms over larger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Menghua Wu , Yujia Bao , Regina Barzilay , Tommi Jaakkola

Identifying a causal model of an IT system is fundamental to many branches of systems engineering and operation. Such a model can be used to predict the effects of control actions, optimize operations, diagnose failures, detect intrusions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Kim Hammar , Rolf Stadler

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

As predictive models -- e.g., from machine learning -- give likely outcomes, they may be used to reason on the effect of an intervention, a causal-inference task. The increasing complexity of health data has opened the door to a plethora of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-17 Matthieu Doutreligne , Gaël Varoquaux

Design-based simulations - procedures that hold realized outcomes fixed and generate variation by resampling treatment assignment or shocks - are widely used in both methodological and applied work to assess inference procedures. This paper…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-13 Bruno Ferman

To make effective decisions, it is important to have a thorough understanding of the causal relationships among actions, environments, and outcomes. This review aims to surface three crucial aspects of decision-making through a causal lens:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-22 Lin Ge , Hengrui Cai , Runzhe Wan , Yang Xu , Rui Song

Causal inference, a critical tool for informing business decisions, traditionally relies heavily on structured data. However, in many real-world scenarios, such data can be incomplete or unavailable. This paper presents a framework that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Boning Zhou , Ziyu Wang , Han Hong , Haoqi Hu

Causal discovery algorithms based on probabilistic graphical models have emerged in geoscience applications for the identification and visualization of dynamical processes. The key idea is to learn the structure of a graphical model from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-12-29 Imme Ebert-Uphoff , Yi Deng

Machine learning models, especially deep neural networks have been shown to be susceptible to privacy attacks such as membership inference where an adversary can detect whether a data point was used for training a black-box model. Such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-20 Shruti Tople , Amit Sharma , Aditya Nori

We introduce a causal modeling framework that captures the input-output behavior of predictive models (e.g., machine learning models). The framework enables us to identify features that directly cause the predictions, which has broad…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Yizuo Chen , Amit Bhatia

We focus on causal discovery in the presence of measurement error in linear systems where the mixing matrix, i.e., the matrix indicating the independent exogenous noise terms pertaining to the observed variables, is identified up to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Yuqin Yang , AmirEmad Ghassami , Mohamed Nafea , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang , Ilya Shpitser

Statistical science (as opposed to mathematical statistics) involves far more than probability theory, for it requires realistic causal models of data generators - even for purely descriptive goals. Statistical decision theory requires more…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-06-02 Sander Greenland
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