Related papers: Generalised Hyperbolic State-space Models for Infe…

We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process, computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of…

The lifted Heston model is a stochastic volatility model emerging as a Markovian lift of the rough Heston model and the class of rough volatility processes. The model encodes the path dependency of volatility on a set of N square-root state…

Pervasive across diverse domains, stochastic systems exhibit fluctuations in processes ranging from molecular dynamics to climate phenomena. The Langevin equation has served as a common mathematical model for studying such systems, enabling…

Dynamical systems driven by nonlinear delay SDEs with small noise can exhibit important rare events on long timescales. When there is no delay, classical large deviations theory quantifies rare events such as escapes from metastable fixed…

We propose a probabilistic framework for developing computational models of biological neural systems. In this framework, physiological recordings are viewed as discrete-time partial observations of an underlying continuous-time stochastic…

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) combined with Gaussian Process (GP) emission can be effectively used to estimate the hidden state with a sequence of complex input-output relational observations. Especially when the spectral mixture (SM) kernel is…

Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian posterior inference is a common approach used in machine learning. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures that are used are often discrete-time analogues of associated stochastic differential equations…

In this article we study a class of stochastic functional differential equations driven by L\'{e}vy processes (in particular, $\alpha$-stable processes), and obtain the existence and uniqueness of Markov solutions in small time intervals.…

The nonlinearity of dynamics in systems biology makes it hard to infer them from experimental data. Simple linear models are computationally efficient, but cannot incorporate these important nonlinearities. An adaptive method based on the…

Linear partial differential equations (PDEs) are an important, widely applied class of mechanistic models, describing physical processes such as heat transfer, electromagnetism, and wave propagation. In practice, specialized numerical…

Traditional data-driven methods, effective for deterministic systems or stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with Gaussian noise, fail to handle the discontinuous sample paths and heavy-tailed fluctuations characteristic of L\'evy…

Diffusion models (DMs) represent state-of-the-art generative models for continuous inputs. DMs work by constructing a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) in the input space (ie, position space), and using a neural network to reverse it.…

A fractional advection-dispersion equation (fADE) has been advocated for heavy-tailed flows where the usual Brownian diffusion models fail. A stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by a stable L\'{e}vy process gives a forward…

Stochastic gradient MCMC methods, such as stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD), employ fast but noisy gradient estimates to enable large-scale posterior sampling. Although we can easily extend SGLD to distributed settings, it…

This paper is concerned with a state-space approach to deep Gaussian process (DGP) regression. We construct the DGP by hierarchically putting transformed Gaussian process (GP) priors on the length scales and magnitudes of the next level of…

Many systems in physics, engineering, and biology exhibit multiscale stochastic dynamics, where low-dimensional slow variables evolve under the influence of high-dimensional fast processes. In practice, observations are often limited to a…

Uncertainty Quantification for nonlinear hyperbolic problems becomes a challenging task in the vicinity of shocks. Standard intrusive methods lead to oscillatory solutions and can result in non-hyperbolic moment systems. The intrusive…

We propose a finite difference scheme to simulate solutions to a certain type of hyperbolic stochastic partial differential equation (HSPDE). These solutions can in turn estimate so called volatility modulated Volterra (VMV) processes and…

Autoregressive next-step prediction models have become the de-facto standard for building data-driven neural solvers to forecast time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs). Denoise training that is closely related to diffusion…

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) is a computationally efficient sampler for Bayesian posterior inference given a large scale dataset. Although SGLD is designed for unbounded random variables, many practical models incorporate…