English
Related papers

Related papers: Optimize-via-Predict: Realizing out-of-sample opti…

200 papers

Inverse optimization has been increasingly used to estimate unknown parameters in an optimization model based on decision data. We show that such a point estimation is insufficient in a prescriptive setting where the estimated parameters…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Bo Lin , Erick Delage , Timothy C. Y. Chan

The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Roshni Sahoo , Lihua Lei , Stefan Wager

We consider generic stochastic optimization problems in the presence of side information which enables a more insightful decision. The side information constitutes observable exogenous covariates that alter the conditional probability…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Prateek R. Srivastava , Yijie Wang , Grani A. Hanasusanto , Chin Pang Ho

Invariant prediction uses the prediction stability of causal relationships across different environments to identify causal variables. Conversely, using causal variables gives prediction guarantees even in out-of-sample data settings. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Lucas Kania , Ernst Wit

Decision-makers often act in response to data-driven predictions, with the goal of achieving favorable outcomes. In such settings, predictions don't passively forecast the future; instead, predictions actively shape the distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Michael P. Kim , Juan C. Perdomo

This paper is concerned with detecting the presence of out of sample predictability in linear predictive regressions with a potentially large set of candidate predictors. We propose a procedure based on out of sample MSE comparisons that is…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-17 Jesus Gonzalo , Jean-Yves Pitarakis

We derive asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when payoffs depend on a partially-identified parameter $\theta$ and the decision maker can use a point-identified parameter $\mu$ to deduce…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-19 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

When considering an unconstrained minimization problem, a standard approach is to solve the optimality system with a Newton method possibly preconditioned by, e.g., nonlinear elimination. In this contribution, we argue that nonlinear…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-09-04 Gabriele Ciaremalla , Tommaso Vanzan

This paper studies the problem of learning an unknown function $f$ from given data about $f$. The learning problem is to give an approximation $\hat f$ to $f$ that predicts the values of $f$ away from the data. There are numerous settings…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Peter Binev , Andrea Bonito , Ronald DeVore , Guergana Petrova

Mathematical optimization, although often leading to NP-hard models, is now capable of solving even large-scale instances within reasonable time. However, the primary focus is often placed solely on optimality. This implies that while…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Kevin-Martin Aigner , Marc Goerigk , Michael Hartisch , Frauke Liers , Arthur Miehlich , Florian Rösel

Bayesian optimization is proposed for automatic learning of optimal controller parameters from experimental data. A probabilistic description (a Gaussian process) is used to model the unknown function from controller parameters to a…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-01-24 Matthias Neumann-Brosig , Alonso Marco , Dieter Schwarzmann , Sebastian Trimpe

Many decision problems in science, engineering and economics are affected by uncertain parameters whose distribution is only indirectly observable through samples. The goal of data-driven decision-making is to learn a decision from finitely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Daniel Kuhn , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Viet Anh Nguyen , Soroosh Shafieezadeh-Abadeh

We consider the problem of constructing probabilistic predictions that lead to accurate decisions when employed by downstream users to inform actions. For a single decision maker, designing an optimal predictor is equivalent to minimizing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Isaac Gibbs , Ryan J. Tibshirani

The classic newsvendor model yields an optimal decision for a ``newsvendor'' selecting a quantity of inventory, under the assumption that the demand is drawn from a known distribution. Motivated by applications such as cloud provisioning…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-21 Lin An , Andrew A. Li , Benjamin Moseley , R. Ravi

Sample-based trajectory optimisers are a promising tool for the control of robotics with non-differentiable dynamics and cost functions. Contemporary approaches derive from a restricted subclass of stochastic optimal control where the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-10-07 Tom Lefebvre , Guillaume Crevecoeur

In data-driven inverse optimization an observer aims to learn the preferences of an agent who solves a parametric optimization problem depending on an exogenous signal. Thus, the observer seeks the agent's objective function that best…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Soroosh Shafieezadeh-Abadeh , Grani Adiwena Hanasusanto , Daniel Kuhn

An algorithm is proposed, analyzed, and tested for solving continuous nonlinear-equality-constrained optimization problems where the objective and constraint functions are defined by expectations or averages over large, finite numbers of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-14 Frank E. Curtis , Lingjun Guo , Daniel P. Robinson

We consider the optimal decision-making problem in a primary sample of interest with multiple auxiliary sources available. The outcome of interest is limited in the sense that it is only observed in the primary sample. In reality, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-23 Hengrui Cai , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

We study the problem of determining what data is required to solve a decision-making task when only partial information about the state of the world is available. Focusing on linear programs, we introduce a decision-focused notion of data…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-18 Omar Bennouna , Amine Bennouna , Saurabh Amin , Asuman Ozdaglar

While solutions of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) problems can sometimes have a higher out-of-sample expected reward than the Sample Average Approximation (SAA), there is no guarantee. In this paper, we introduce a class of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-13 Jun-ya Gotoh , Michael Jong Kim , Andrew E. B. Lim