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Estimators that weight observed outcomes to form effect estimates have a long tradition. Their outcome weights are widely used in established procedures, such as checking covariate balance, characterizing target populations, or detecting…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-13 Michael C. Knaus

A key challenge in estimating causal effects from observational data is handling confounding and is commonly achieved through weighting methods that balance distribution of covariates between treatment and control groups. Weighting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Simion De , Jared D. Huling

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estimation and inference procedures for multiple…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-08 Michael Lechner

Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-13 Alexander Hanbo Li , Jelena Bradic

We consider ordered logit models for directed network data that allow for flexible sender and receiver fixed effects that can vary arbitrarily across outcome categories. This structure poses a significant incidental parameter problem,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-23 Chris Muris , Cavit Pakel , Qichen Zhang

Investigating the relationships between two sets of variables helps to understand their interactions and can be done with canonical correlation analysis (CCA). However, the correlation between the two sets can sometimes depend on a third…

We propose the orthogonal random forest, an algorithm that combines Neyman-orthogonality to reduce sensitivity with respect to estimation error of nuisance parameters with generalized random forests (Athey et al., 2017)--a flexible…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-27 Miruna Oprescu , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-12 Alexander Hanbo Li , Jelena Bradic

Random forests are an ensemble method relevant for many problems, such as regression or classification. They are popular due to their good predictive performance (compared to, e.g., decision trees) requiring only minimal tuning of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-20 Nikolaus Umlauf , Nadja Klein

We propose an algorithm named best-scored random forest for binary classification problems. The terminology "best-scored" means to select the one with the best empirical performance out of a certain number of purely random tree candidates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Hanyuan Hang , Xiaoyu Liu , Ingo Steinwart

This paper presents a new approach for trees-based regression, such as simple regression tree, random forest and gradient boosting, in settings involving correlated data. We show the problems that arise when implementing standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-09 Assaf Rabinowicz , Saharon Rosset

Forest-based methods have recently gained in popularity for non-parametric treatment effect estimation. Building on this line of work, we introduce causal survival forests, which can be used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-01 Yifan Cui , Michael R. Kosorok , Erik Sverdrup , Stefan Wager , Ruoqing Zhu

Ordered categorical data frequently arise in the analysis of biomedical, agricultural, and social sciences data. The logistic regression model is attractive in analyzing ordered categorical data because of its use in interpretation of a…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-08 Ali Reza Fotouhi , Theresa Mulder

Data analysis and machine learning have become an integrative part of the modern scientific methodology, providing automated techniques to predict further information based on observations. One of these classification and regression…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-01-07 Mario Amrehn , Firas Mualla , Elli Angelopoulou , Stefan Steidl , Andreas Maier

Decision trees are widely used for non-linear modeling, as they capture interactions between predictors while producing inherently interpretable models. Despite their popularity, performing inference on the non-linear fit remains largely…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Soham Bakshi , Snigdha Panigrahi

We introduce random survival forests, a random forests method for the analysis of right-censored survival data. New survival splitting rules for growing survival trees are introduced, as is a new missing data algorithm for imputing missing…

Applications · Statistics 2008-11-12 Hemant Ishwaran , Udaya B. Kogalur , Eugene H. Blackstone , Michael S. Lauer

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

Random forests are a learning algorithm proposed by Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] that combines several randomized decision trees and aggregates their predictions by averaging. Despite its wide usage and outstanding practical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-11 Erwan Scornet , Gérard Biau , Jean-Philippe Vert

Regression trees and their ensemble methods are popular methods for nonparametric regression: they combine strong predictive performance with interpretable estimators. To improve their utility for locally smooth response surfaces, we study…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-13 Sören R. Künzel , Theo F. Saarinen , Edward W. Liu , Jasjeet S. Sekhon

In this paper we present a data-adaptive estimation procedure for estimation of average treatment effects in a time-to-event setting based on generalized random forests. In these kinds of settings, the definition of causal effect parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-28 Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Claus T. Ekstrøm , Lars V. Kessing , Thomas A. Gerds