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Optimization constrained by high-fidelity computational models has potential for transformative impact. However, such optimization is frequently unattainable in practice due to the complexity and computational intensity of the model. An…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders

Adaptive control approaches yield high-performance controllers when a precise system model or suitable parametrizations of the controller are available. Existing data-driven approaches for adaptive control mostly augment standard…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-03 Christopher König , Matteo Turchetta , John Lygeros , Alisa Rupenyan , Andreas Krause

We present a general prediction scheme of failure times based on updating continuously with time the probability for failure of the global system, conditioned on the information revealed on the pre-existing idiosyncratic realization of the…

Materials Science · Physics 2009-11-11 D. Sornette , J. V. Andersen

Scenarios requiring humans to choose from multiple seemingly optimal actions are commonplace, however standard imitation learning often fails to capture this behavior. Instead, an over-reliance on replicating expert actions induces…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Hanbit Oh , Hikaru Sasaki , Brendan Michael , Takamitsu Matsubara

Gaussian graphical models are widely used to infer dependence structures. Bayesian methods are appealing to quantify uncertainty associated with structural learning, i.e., the plausibility of conditional independence statements given the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-05 Deborah Sulem , Jack Jewson , David Rossell

Inspired by widely-used techniques of causal modelling in risk, failure, and accident analysis, this work discusses a compositional framework for risk modelling. Risk models capture fragments of the space of risky events likely to occur…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-03-21 Mario Gleirscher

Robot failures in human-centered environments are inevitable. Therefore, the ability of robots to explain such failures is paramount for interacting with humans to increase trust and transparency. To achieve this skill, the main challenges…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Maximilian Diehl , Karinne Ramirez-Amaro

We are developing a general framework for using learned Bayesian models for decision-theoretic control of search and reasoningalgorithms. We illustrate the approach on the specific task of controlling both general and domain-specific…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Eric J. Horvitz , Yongshao Ruan , Carla P. Gomes , Henry Kautz , Bart Selman , David Maxwell Chickering

Large-scale optimization problems are ubiquitous in the physical sciences; yet, high-fidelity models can often be complex and computationally prohibitive for optimization. A practical alternative is to use a low-fidelity model to facilitate…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-03 Madhusudan Madhavan , Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders

Source separation problems are ubiquitous in the physical sciences; any situation where signals are superimposed calls for source separation to estimate the original signals. In this tutorial I will discuss the Bayesian approach to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-11-14 Kevin H. Knuth

Complex simulator-based models are now routinely used to perform inference across the sciences and engineering, but existing inference methods are often unable to account for outliers and other extreme values in data which occur due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-18 Ayush Bharti , Charita Dellaporta , Yuga Hikida , François-Xavier Briol

Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Mohamed Ndaoud , Peter Radchenko , Bradley Rava

Bayesian methods are particularly effective for addressing inverse problems due to their ability to manage uncertainties inherent in the inference process. However, employing these methods with costly forward models poses significant…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-10-30 G. Robalo Rei , C. P. Schmidt , J. Nitzler , M. Dinkel , W. A. Wall

For developing innovative systems architectures, modeling and optimization techniques have been central to frame the architecting process and define the optimization and modeling problems. In this context, for system-of-systems the use of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Paul Saves , Jasper Bussemaker , Rémi Lafage , Thierry Lefebvre , Nathalie Bartoli , Youssef Diouane , Joseph Morlier

Autonomous race cars require perception, estimation, planning, and control modules which work together asynchronously while driving at the limit of a vehicle's handling capability. A fundamental challenge encountered in designing these…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Achin Jain , Matthew O'Kelly , Pratik Chaudhari , Manfred Morari

Falsification is drawing attention in quality assurance of heterogeneous systems whose complexities are beyond most verification techniques' scalability. In this paper we introduce the idea of causality aid in falsification: by providing a…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-09-11 Takumi Akazaki , Yoshihiro Kumazawa , Ichiro Hasuo

Optimal design of experiments for Bayesian inverse problems has recently gained wide popularity and attracted much attention, especially in the computational science and Bayesian inversion communities. An optimal design maximizes a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Ahmed Attia , Sven Leyffer , Todd Munson

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-15 Alice Cicirello , Filippo Giunta

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Ayush Bharti , Daolang Huang , Samuel Kaski , François-Xavier Briol

Although an ever-growing number of applications employ deep learning based systems for prediction, decision-making, or state estimation, almost no certification processes have been established that would allow such systems to be deployed in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Romeo Valentin