Related papers: Transmission matrix parameter estimation of COVID-…
Compartmental epidemiological models categorize individuals based on their disease status, such as the SEIRD model (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead). These models determine the parameters that influence the magnitude of an…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
Forecasts of hospitalisations of infectious diseases play an important role for allocating healthcare resources during epidemics and pandemics. Large-scale analysis of model forecasts during the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that the model…
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented unprecedented challenges worldwide, necessitating effective modelling approaches to understand and control its transmission dynamics. In this study, we propose a novel approach that integrates…
The main focus of this chapter is on public health control strategies which are currently the main way to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic. We introduce and compare compartmental models of increasing complexity for COVID-19 transmission to…
A generalisation of the Susceptible-Infectious model is made to include a time-dependent transmission rate, which leads to a close analytical expression in terms of a logistic function. The solution can be applied to any continuous function…
Since the beginning of the epidemic, daily reports of CoViD-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from around the world have been publicly available. This paper describes methods to characterize broad features of the spread of the disease,…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…
The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by multiple waves of transmission driven by interventions and emerging variants, challenging epidemic models that assume gradually evolving transmission dynamics. We propose a class of…
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
The recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has dramatically increased the public awareness and appreciation of the utility of dynamic models. At the same time, the dissemination of contradictory model predictions has highlighted…
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…
Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…
In this paper, we develop an extension of standard epidemiological models, suitable for COVID-19. This extension incorporates the transmission due to pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers of the virus. Furthermore, this model also…
Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…