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Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Navigating safely in urban environments remains a challenging problem for autonomous vehicles. Occlusion and limited sensor range can pose significant challenges to safely navigate among pedestrians and other vehicles in the environment.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-07-19 Ming-Yuan Yu , Ram Vasudevan , Matthew Johnson-Roberson

Traffic volume is an indispensable ingredient to provide fine-grained information for traffic management and control. However, due to limited deployment of traffic sensors, obtaining full-scale volume information is far from easy. Existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-31 Tong Nie , Guoyang Qin , Yunpeng Wang , Jian Sun

To plan a safe and efficient route, an autonomous vehicle should anticipate future motions of other agents around it. Motion prediction is an extremely challenging task which recently gained significant attention of the research community.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-12-14 Aleksey Postnikov , Aleksander Gamayunov , Gonzalo Ferrer

Although neural networks have seen tremendous success as predictive models in a variety of domains, they can be overly confident in their predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. To be viable for safety-critical applications, like…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Masha Itkina , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Missing data are prevalent and present daunting challenges in real data analysis. While there is a growing body of literature on fairness in analysis of fully observed data, there has been little theoretical work on investigating fairness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-10 Yiliang Zhang , Qi Long

The analysis of data such as graphs has been gaining increasing attention in the past years. This is justified by the numerous applications in which they appear. Several methods are present to predict graphs, but much fewer to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Anna Calissano , Matteo Fontana , Gianluca Zeni , Simone Vantini

Predicting future trajectories of nearby objects, especially under occlusion, is a crucial task in autonomous driving and safe robot navigation. Prior works typically neglect to maintain uncertainty about occluded objects and only predict…

Many current autonomous systems are being designed with a strong reliance on black box predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs). However, DNNs tend to be overconfident in predictions on unseen data and can give unpredictable results for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Björn Lütjens , Michael Everett , Jonathan P. How

Progress towards advanced systems for assisted and autonomous driving is leveraging recent advances in recognition and segmentation methods. Yet, we are still facing challenges in bringing reliable driving to inner cities, as those are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-06-21 Apratim Bhattacharyya , Mario Fritz , Bernt Schiele

Scenario-based testing of automated driving functions has become a promising method to reduce time and cost compared to real-world testing. In scenario-based testing automated functions are evaluated in a set of pre-defined scenarios. These…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Christoph Glasmacher , Michael Schuldes , Sleiman El Masri , Lutz Eckstein

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are being increasingly deployed in urban environments. In order to operate safely and reliably, AVs need to account for the inherent uncertainty associated with perceiving the world through sensor data and…

Mobile robots navigating in crowds trained using reinforcement learning are known to suffer performance degradation when faced with out-of-distribution scenarios. We propose that by properly accounting for the uncertainties of pedestrians,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Jianpeng Yao , Xiaopan Zhang , Yu Xia , Zejin Wang , Amit K. Roy-Chowdhury , Jiachen Li

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

We introduce uncertainty regions to perform inference on partial correlations when data are missing not at random. These uncertainty regions are shown to have a desired asymptotic coverage. Their finite sample performance is illustrated via…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-08 Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

Accurate Traffic Prediction is a challenging task in intelligent transportation due to the spatial-temporal aspects of road networks. The traffic of a road network can be affected by long-distance or long-term dependencies where existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-10 Zhengyang Zhao , Haitao Yuan , Nan Jiang , Minxiao Chen , Ning Liu , Zengxiang Li

In modern traffic management, one of the most essential yet challenging tasks is accurately and timely predicting traffic. It has been well investigated and examined that deep learning-based Spatio-temporal models have an edge when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Yunjie Huang , Xiaozhuang Song , Yuanshao Zhu , Shiyao Zhang , James J. Q. Yu

The ability to predict the future movements of other vehicles is a subconscious and effortless skill for humans and key to safe autonomous driving. Therefore, trajectory prediction for autonomous cars has gained a lot of attention in recent…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-09-16 Benedikt Mersch , Thomas Höllen , Kun Zhao , Cyrill Stachniss , Ribana Roscher

Current navigation systems conflate time-to-drive with the true time-to-arrive by ignoring parking search duration and the final walking leg. Such underestimation can significantly affect user experience, mode choice, congestion, and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-03 Cameron Hickert , Sirui Li , Zhengbing He , Cathy Wu