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Many applications of machine learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, one data-driven approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Clara Fannjiang , Stephen Bates , Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Jennifer Listgarten , Michael I. Jordan

The design of biological systems is hindered by uncertainty arising from both intrinsic stochasticity of biomolecular reactions and variability across laboratory or experimental conditions. In this work, we present a sequential framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Michal Kobiela , Diego A. Oyarzún , Michael U. Gutmann

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a framework that uses statistical models and decision making under uncertainty to optimise the cost and performance of a scientific experiment. Sequential BED, as opposed to static BED, considers the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-23 Steven Kleinegesse , Christopher Drovandi , Michael U. Gutmann

It is well understood that Bayesian decision theory and average case analysis are essentially identical. However, if one is interested in performing uncertainty quantification for a numerical task, it can be argued that standard approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-16 Chris. J. Oates , Jon Cockayne , Dennis Prangle , T. J. Sullivan , Mark Girolami

Implicit stochastic models, where the data-generation distribution is intractable but sampling is possible, are ubiquitous in the natural sciences. The models typically have free parameters that need to be inferred from data collected in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-17 Steven Kleinegesse , Michael U. Gutmann

An understanding of how input parameter uncertainty in the numerical simulation of physical models leads to simulation output uncertainty is a challenging task. Common methods for quantifying output uncertainty, such as performing a grid or…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-09-25 Samuel G. McCallum , James E. Lerpiniére , Kjeld O. Jensen , Alison B. Walker

For biological experiments aiming at calibrating models with unknown parameters, a good experimental design is crucial, especially for those subject to various constraints, such as financial limitations, time consumption and physical…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-22 Xiao Lin , Gabriel Terejanu

Bayesian response adaptive clinical trials are currently evaluating experimental therapies for several diseases. Adaptive decisions, such as pre-planned variations of the randomization probabilities, attempt to accelerate the development of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Marta Bonsaglio , Sandra Fortini , Steffen Ventz , Lorenzo Trippa

A computer model can be used for predicting an output only after specifying the values of some unknown physical constants known as calibration parameters. The unknown calibration parameters can be estimated from real data by conducting…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-18 Arvind Krishna , V. Roshan Joseph , Shan Ba , William A. Brenneman , William R. Myers

Single-cell gene expression measurements offer opportunities in deriving mechanistic understanding of complex diseases, including cancer. However, due to the complex regulatory machinery of the cell, gene regulatory network (GRN) model…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2019-02-11 Ehsan Hajiramezanali , Mahdi Imani , Ulisses Braga-Neto , Xiaoning Qian , Edward R Dougherty

Fractional polynomial models are potentially useful for response surfaces investigations. With the availability of routines for fitting nonlinear models in statistical packages they are increasingly being used. However, as in all…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Luzia A. Trinca , Steven G. Gilmour

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

A widely used method to create a continuous representation of a discrete data-set is regression analysis. When the regression model is not based on a mathematical description of the physics underlying the data, heuristic techniques play a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-18 Giovanni Mana , Paolo Alberto Giuliano Albo , Simona Lago

Identification of optimal dose combinations in early phase dose-finding trials is challenging, due to the trade-off between precisely estimating the many parameters required to flexibly model the possibly non-monotonic dose-response…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 James Willard , Shirin Golchi , Erica E. M. Moodie , Bruno Boulanger , Bradley P. Carlin

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) selects experiments to maximize information gain about model parameters. However, in decision-critical settings, reducing parameter uncertainty does not necessarily improve downstream decisions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Jinwoo Go , Xiaoning Qian , Byung-Jun Yoon

We consider a class of misspecified dynamical models where the governing term is only approximately known. Under the assumption that observations of the system's evolution are accessible for various initial conditions, our goal is to infer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-06 Gal Shulkind , Lior Horesh , Haim Avron

Most Bayesian response-adaptive designs unbalance randomization rates towards the most promising arms with the goal of increasing the number of positive treatment outcomes during the study, even though the primary aim of the trial is…

Applications · Statistics 2018-07-02 Steffen Ventz , Matteo Cellamare , Sergio Bacallado , Lorenzo Trippa

This study examines the application of Bayesian approach in the context of clinical trials, emphasizing their increasing importance in contemporary biomedical research. While conventional frequentist approach provides a foundational basis…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Paramahansa Pramanik , Arnab Kumar Maity , Anjan Mandal , Haley Kate Robinson

A Bayesian optimal experimental design framework is developed for experiments where settings of one or more variables, referred to as profile variables, can be functions. For this type of experiment, a design consists of combinations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Damianos Michaelides , Maria Adamou , David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall