Related papers: Resource Adequacy and Capacity Procurement: Metric…
Renewable energy sources, especially wind energy, are to play a larger role in providing electricity to industrial and domestic consumers. This is already the case today for a number of European countries, closely followed by the US and…
We study capacity accreditation of resource-colocated large loads, defined as large demands such as data center and manufacturing loads colocated with behind-the-meter generation and storage resources, synchronously connected to the bulk…
Resiliency has garnered attention in the management of critical infrastructure as a metric of system performance, but there are significant roadblocks to its implementation in a realistic decision-making framework. Contrasted to risk and…
In response to growing concern about the reliability and reproducibility of published science, researchers have proposed adopting measures of greater statistical stringency, including suggestions to require larger sample sizes and to lower…
Extreme weather events during peak winter periods drive resource adequacy risk in Great Britain (GB), with weather sensitivity of the supply-demand balance increasing through additional electric heating and wind generation. This work…
The demand for electricity is undergoing considerable spatial and temporal change. With the uptake of efficient technologies and increased electrification, a better understanding of how potential changes in demand patterns can affect…
The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and…
We consider a risk-averse stochastic capacity planning problem under uncertain demand in each period. Using a scenario tree representation of the uncertainty, we formulate a multistage stochastic integer program to adjust the capacity…
Although many investigators affirm a desire to build reasoning systems that behave consistently with the axiomatic basis defined by probability theory and utility theory, limited resources for engineering and computation can make a complete…
Data centers have become ubiquitous for today's businesses. From banks to startups, they rely on cloud infrastructure to deploy user applications. In this context, it is vital to provide users with application performance guarantees.…
Concerns about system adequacy have led to the establishment of capacity mechanisms in a number of regulatory areas. Against this background, it is essential to accurately quantify the contribution to security of supply that results from…
Probabilistic resource adequacy assessment is a cornerstone of modern capacity accreditation. This paper develops a gradient-based framework, in which capacity accreditation is interpreted as the directional derivative of a probabilistic…
Wind power forecasting is essential for managing daily operations at wind farms and enabling market operators to manage power uncertainty effectively in demand planning. This paper explores advanced cross-temporal forecasting models and…
Intelligent agents rely on AI/ML functionalities to predict the consequence of possible actions and optimise the policy. However, the effort of the research community in addressing prediction accuracy has been so intense (and successful)…
Information value, a measure for decision sensitivity, can provide essential information in engineering and environmental assessments. It quantifies the potential for improved decision-making when reducing uncertainty in specific inputs. By…
Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system…
Forecast combination and model averaging have become popular tools in forecasting and prediction, both of which combine a set of candidate estimates with certain weights and are often shown to outperform single estimates. A data-driven…
We study risk-aware linear policy approximations for the optimal operation of an energy system with stochastic wind power, storage, and limited fuel. The resulting problem is a sequential decision-making problem with rolling forecasts. In…
We study linear policy approximations for the risk-conscious operation of an industrial energy system with uncertain wind power, significant and variable electricity demand, and high thermal output, as found in a modern foundry. The system…
The estimation of risk measures recently gained a lot of attention, partly because of the backtesting issues of expected shortfall related to elicitability. In this work we shed a new and fundamental light on optimal estimation procedures…