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One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Causal discovery (CD) aims to discover the causal graph underlying the data generation mechanism of observed variables. In many real-world applications, the observed variables are vector-valued, such as in climate science where variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Urmi Ninad , Jonas Wahl , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

Causality is a fundamental part of the scientific endeavour to understand the world. Unfortunately, causality is still taboo in much of psychology and social science. Motivated by a growing number of recommendations for the importance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-27 Matthew J. Vowels

Software is prone to security vulnerabilities. Program analysis tools to detect them have limited effectiveness in practice due to their reliance on human labeled specifications. Large language models (or LLMs) have shown impressive code…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Ziyang Li , Saikat Dutta , Mayur Naik

We consider the problem of non-parametric Conditional Independence testing (CI testing) for continuous random variables. Given i.i.d samples from the joint distribution $f(x,y,z)$ of continuous random vectors $X,Y$ and $Z,$ we determine…

Large language models often improve reasoning by sampling multiple outputs and aggregating their final answers, but precise and efficient control of error levels remains a challenging task. In particular, deciding when to stop sampling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Hirofumi Ota , Naoto Iwase , Yuki Ichihara , Junpei Komiyama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Distinguishing between cause and effect using time series observational data is a major challenge in many scientific fields. A new perspective has been provided based on the principle of Independence of Causal Mechanisms (ICM), leading to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-01 Michel Besserve , Naji Shajarisales , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Measurement error in the observed values of the variables can greatly change the output of various causal discovery methods. This problem has received much attention in multiple fields, but it is not clear to what extent the causal model…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-14 Kun Zhang , Mingming Gong , Joseph Ramsey , Kayhan Batmanghelich , Peter Spirtes , Clark Glymour

In practical situations, the reliability of quantum resources can be compromised due to complex generation processes or adversarial manipulations during transmission. Consequently, the trials generated sequentially in an experiment may…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-02-10 Yanbao Zhang , Akshay Seshadri , Emanuel Knill

As any scientific discipline, the software engineering (SE) research community strives to contribute to the betterment of the target population of our research: software producers and consumers. We will only achieve this betterment if we…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Julian Frattini , Hans-Martin Heyn , Robert Feldt , Richard Torkar

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying causal relationships from observational data, is highly challenging for AI systems. In a time series modeling context, traditional causal discovery methods mainly consider constrained scenarios…

Testing (conditional) independence of multivariate random variables is a task central to statistical inference and modelling in general - though unfortunately one for which to date there does not exist a practicable workflow. State-of-art…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-01 Samuel Burkart , Franz J Király

Current models for event causality identification (ECI) mainly adopt a supervised framework, which heavily rely on labeled data for training. Unfortunately, the scale of current annotated datasets is relatively limited, which cannot provide…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-04 Xinyu Zuo , Pengfei Cao , Yubo Chen , Kang Liu , Jun Zhao , Weihua Peng , Yuguang Chen

Causal discovery from observational data is an important tool in many branches of science. Under certain assumptions it allows scientists to explain phenomena, predict, and make decisions. In the large sample limit, sound and complete…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-13 Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Raanan Y. Rohekar , Gal Novik

We address the problem of identifiability of an arbitrary conditional causal effect given both the causal graph and a set of any observational and/or interventional distributions of the form $Q[S]:=P(S|do(V\setminus S))$, where $V$ denotes…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Yaroslav Kivva , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Addressing the problem of fairness is crucial to safely use machine learning algorithms to support decisions with a critical impact on people's lives such as job hiring, child maltreatment, disease diagnosis, loan granting, etc. Several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Karima Makhlouf , Sami Zhioua , Catuscia Palamidessi

Causal reasoning and compositional reasoning are two core aspirations in AI. Measuring the extent of these behaviors requires principled evaluation methods. We explore a unified perspective that considers both behaviors simultaneously,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Jacqueline R. M. A. Maasch , Alihan Hüyük , Xinnuo Xu , Aditya V. Nori , Javier Gonzalez

Background: Causal relations in natural language (NL) requirements convey strong, semantic information. Automatically extracting such causal information enables multiple use cases, such as test case generation, but it also requires to…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Julian Frattini , Jannik Fischbach , Daniel Mendez , Michael Unterkalmsteiner , Andreas Vogelsang , Krzystof Wnuk

Independence and Conditional Independence (CI) are two fundamental concepts in probability and statistics, which can be applied to solve many central problems of statistical inference. There are many existing independence and CI measures…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-17 Jian Ma

This paper develops a conditional independence (CI) test from a conditional density ratio (CDR) for weakly dependent data. The main contribution is presenting a closed-form expression for the estimated conditional density ratio function…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-25 Chunrong Ai , Zixuan Xu , Zheng Zhang