Related papers: Empirical Risk Minimization for Losses without Var…
Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…
In confirmatory clinical trials, it has been proposed to use a simple iterative graphical approach to construct and perform intersection hypotheses tests with a weighted Bonferroni-type procedure to control type I errors in the strong…
In this paper, we develop a general approach for probabilistic estimation and optimization. An explicit formula and a computational approach are established for controlling the reliability of probabilistic estimation based on a mixed…
Rates of convergence for empirical risk minimizers have been well studied in the literature. In this paper, we aim to provide a complementary set of results, in particular by showing that after normalization, the risk of the empirical…
Conditional risk minimization arises in high-stakes decisions where risk must be assessed in light of side information, such as stressed economic conditions, specific customer profiles, or other contextual covariates. Constructing reliable…
Obtaining guarantees on the convergence of the minimizers of empirical risks to the ones of the true risk is a fundamental matter in statistical learning. Instead of deriving guarantees on the usual estimation error, the goal of this paper…
Under losses which are potentially heavy-tailed, we consider the task of minimizing sums of the loss mean and standard deviation, without trying to accurately estimate the variance. By modifying a technique for variance-free robust mean…
To alleviate the annotation burden in supervised learning, N-tuples learning has recently emerged as a powerful weakly-supervised method. While existing N-tuples learning approaches extend pairwise learning to higher-order comparisons and…
Rare event simulation and estimation for systems in equilibrium are among the most challenging topics in molecular dynamics. As was shown by Jarzynski and others, nonequilibrium forcing can theoretically be used to obtain equilibrium rare…
We study an optimal control problem under uncertainty, where the target function is the solution of an elliptic partial differential equation with random coefficients, steered by a control function. The robust formulation of the…
For a sample of Exponentially distributed durations we aim at point estimation and a confidence interval for its parameter. A duration is only observed if it has ended within a certain time interval, determined by a Uniform distribution.…
This paper studies the off-policy evaluation problem, where one aims to estimate the value of a target policy based on a sample of observations collected by another policy. We first consider the multi-armed bandit case, establish a minimax…
We consider a class of parameter-dependent optimal control problems of elliptic PDEs with constraints of general type on the control variable. Applying the concept of variational discretization, [4], together with techniques from the…
Most high-dimensional estimation and prediction methods propose to minimize a cost function (empirical risk) that is written as a sum of losses associated to each data point. In this paper we focus on the case of non-convex losses, which is…
We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation…
We consider estimating an expected infinite-horizon cumulative discounted cost/reward contingent on an underlying stochastic process by Monte Carlo simulation. An unbiased estimator based on truncating the cumulative cost at a random…
Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…
We study the out-of-sample properties of robust empirical optimization problems with smooth $\phi$-divergence penalties and smooth concave objective functions, and develop a theory for data-driven calibration of the non-negative "robustness…
A crucial assumption underlying the most current theory of machine learning is that the training distribution is identical to the test distribution. However, this assumption may not hold in some real-world applications. In this paper, we…
This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…