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In the framework of Harnack type Dirichlet forms, we prove a large deviation principle for the asymptotics of reversible Markov processes with rate function given by the energy of the paths.

Probability · Mathematics 2009-07-28 Ann-Kathrin Jarecki

The discrete-time Hawkes process (DTHP) is a sub-class of $g$-functions that serves as a discrete-time version of the continuous-time Hawkes process (CTHP). Like the CTHP, the DTHP also has the self-exciting property and its intensity…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

We study large deviation asymptotics for processes defined in terms of continued fraction digits. We use the continued fraction digit sum process to define a stopping time and derive a joint large deviation asymptotic for the upper and…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-19 Marc Kesseböhmer , Mehdi Slassi

In this paper, we use the framework of mod-$\phi$ convergence to prove precise large or moderate deviations for quite general sequences of real valued random variables $(X_{n})_{n \in \mathbb{N}}$, which can be lattice or non-lattice…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-14 Valentin Féray , Pierre-Loïc Méliot , Ashkan Nikeghbali

This paper focuses on limit theorems for linear Hawkes processes with random marks. We prove a large deviation principle, which answers the question raised by Bordenave and Torrisi. A central limit theorem is also obtained. We conclude with…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-15 Dmytro Karabash , Lingjiong Zhu

In this paper we propose the use of $\phi$-divergences as test statistics to verify simple hypotheses about a one-dimensional parametric diffusion process $\de X_t = b(X_t, \theta)\de t + \sigma(X_t, \theta)\de W_t$, from discrete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-08-22 Alessandro De Gregorio , Stefano Iacus

The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-25 Lingjiong Zhu

Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-28 Lorick Huang , Mahmoud Khabou

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

In this paper we prove scalar and sample path large deviation principles for a large class of Poisson cluster processes. As a consequence, we provide a large deviation principle for ergodic Hawkes point processes.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Charles Bordenave , Giovanni Luca Torrisi

In this paper we consider point processes specified on directed linear networks, i.e. linear networks with associated directions. We adapt the so-called conditional intensity function used for specifying point processes on the time line to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 Jakob G. Rasmussen , Heidi S. Christensen

Time-irreversible stochastic processes are frequently used in natural sciences to explain non-equilibrium phenomena and to design efficient stochastic algorithms. Our main goal in this thesis is to analyse their dynamics by means of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Mikola C. Schlottke

In this paper we propose a framework that enables the study of large deviations for point processes based on stationary sequences with regularly varying tails. This framework allows us to keep track not of the magnitude of the extreme…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-08-21 Henrik Hult , Gennady Samorodnitsky

We study the asymptotic behavior of small deviation probabilities for the critical Galton-Watson processes with infinite variance of the offspring sizes of particles and apply the obtained result to investigate the structure of a reduced…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-16 Vladimir Vatutin , Elena Dyakonova , Yakubdjan Khusanbaev

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

We prove a law of large numbers and functional central limit theorem for a class of multivariate Hawkes processes with time-dependent reproduction rate. We address the difficulties induced by the use of non-convolutive Volterra processes by…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Thomas Deschatre , Pierre Gruet , Antoine Lotz

We provide a unifying treatment of pathwise moderate deviations for models commonly used in financial applications, and for related integrated functionals. Suitable scaling allows us to transfer these results into small-time, large-time and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-04 Antoine Jacquier , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

In this paper, we prove a process-level, also known as level-3 large deviation principle for a very general class of simple point processes, i.e. nonlinear Hawkes process, with a rate function given by the process-level entropy, which has…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

We study the asymptotics of large, moderate and normal deviations for the connected components of the sparse random graph by the method of stochastic processes. We obtain the logarithmic asymptotics of large deviations of the joint…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Anatolii A. Puhalskii

We study the tail asymptotics of two functionals (the maximum and the sum of the marks) of a generic cluster in two sub-models of the marked Poisson cluster process, namely the renewal Poisson cluster process and the Hawkes process. Under…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Fabien Baeriswyl , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Olivier Wintenberger